Storms Next Week and the Fourth of July

We finally got a break from the rain and storms today with that high pressure system sitting just to the southwest, which helped to clear the skies and allowed us to hang on to the warmer temperatures to go along with the sunshine.  However, another low will form out in the southern plains as part of a cutoff system up in the jet stream.  Part of the jet will cutoff down into the southwest, creating instability over the southern plains.  This will lead to the formation of the low pressure system, and since it's associated with a cutoff system, this low will linger in the southern plains through most of next week.

The lingering low will continually pull in warmth and moisture out of the south.  Along with that, the main track of the jet stream will be out of the north, allowing for colder air aloft.  That, combined with the warm and humid air at the surface, will allow air to rise very easily and create thunderstorms.  No thunderstorms are expected to be severe next week, just isolated.

The Fourth of July is expected to have isolated thunderstorms, but not until about 4pm.  However, those storms are expected to clear out between 8-9pm, so everyone should still be able to safely go to firework shows at night.

A high pressure system will move in for next Saturday, clearing out the storms for the start of next weekend and giving us much nicer weather.