Saturday, July 8, 2017

Severe Weather Threat Sunday with More Storms During the Week

It's been a great start to the weekend with clear skies and temperatures hitting the upper 70°s to low 80°s; all without the high humidity. The reason being that we have a high pressure influence over our area, which has made it difficult for clouds to form and has also kept the humidity out of our area.  The high will stay with us through the overnight, where temperatures will cool down to the upper 50°s.  However, that high pressure system will track to the southeast during the day tomorrow, which will actually be a hindrance to us because it will be able to pull heat and humidity back into our area.  Plus, we'll have a low pressure system track down from the northwest, which will strengthen that inflow of heat and humidity into our area.

That strong heat inflow will allow for thunderstorms to easily develop, especially since the jet stream will be moving out of the north, keeping the air aloft colder.  This will allow for that hot and humid air to rise easily, creating thunderstorms, and this is why we have a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow evening.  Most of Sunday will be mostly cloudy, but by around 7pm is when we can expect some of these thunderstorms to start developing, although we could see a couple showers between 4-5pm.  The main threats with these storms will be quarter-sized hail and strong winds.  The storms are expected to clear out by 1am, but we'll have some rain linger afterwards as that heat and moisture inflow will continue.

More storms are expected during the week as a second low will track into our area on Wednesday.  Both low pressure systems will be forming in the northwest due to a strong upper level ridge.  The jet stream will have a northwesterly flow, so both lows will track from the northwest.  The second low will move in right after the first low moves out, which means that the heat and moisture inflow will continue through most of the week, which is why we'll have thunderstorms most of the week. 

However, we'll end the work week on a high note as the second low will move out Thursday morning and bring in cooler, drier air from the north.  This will keep us clear for Thursday and Friday, but we do have a small chance for thunderstorms next Saturday as more moisture will move into our area.

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