Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Wednesday Storm Potential

Another round of heavy rain is not exactly what the Stateline needs, but it's possible this evening.

Southerly winds continue to draw up a warmer and more humid air mass through Wednesday afternoon. PWAT  (or precipitable water/available moisture) values will be again rather high today. Numbers go up to about 2" which means it's possible for 1.50" to 2" of rain to fall across the area. In general, it will be more probable for about 0.50"-1.00" of rain, with locally higher amounts in the stronger storms.

The axis of heaviest rain though has shifted to the south, around the Quad Cities, south to Peoria, and near Des Moines.

This is where the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch, which includes Whiteside county in the Stateline. In this area its possible for up to 2.5" to 3.0" inches.

While the Stateline still needs to watch for heavy rain with already swollen rivers, we still need to keep an eye out for potential strong to severe storms. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin under a Slight Risk for strong to severe storms. Heavy rain, hail, and strong winds will all be possible in storms that develop.

An isolated storm or two is possible in the mid to late afternoon, around 3/4pm, but the higher chance for strong storms with heavy rain will arrive closer to 6/7pm from the west and will continue through midnight. A few lingering storms will continue through Thursday morning, but the severe threat will be low. An isolated shower will be possible in the afternoon, as there will be a bit of instability present with cooler air arriving. 

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