Friday, July 21, 2017

Friday Night Storm Potential

It's been a hot, humid, and active week....and unfortunately the forecast for Friday will be more of the same.

A few isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible later Friday afternoon, as a stationary boundary lifts through northern Illinois as a warm front. The warm front lifting into southern Wisconsin is in response to a low pressure system strengthening in the Plains. Any storm that develops this afternoon will still have periods of heavy rain that will be possible because of the very muggy air mass. It's a very tropical airmass with dew points that will be climbing into the mid and upper 70's.

The time period we really want to pay attention to is this evening, especially after midnight. Storms late today will develop west in Minnesota and will head southeast this evening. Storms will form into an MCS type system which is essentially a cluster of storms which can produce heavy rain and strong straight line winds.

One forecast update from Thursday, is that the axis of heaviest rain has been shifted slightly north. This is good news for the Stateline, which has already been hit with an abundance of heavy rain. The Stateline area isn't out of the woods though just yet, 1-2" of rain is still possible across far northern Illinois, and 2-4" is more likely through southern Wisconsin.

This could pose big problems for those planning to head out to Country Thunder in Twin Lakes Wisconsin. If you are camping overnight Friday, make sure to have multiple ways to receive any watches and warnings should we have them.

There is still an enhanced risk for strong to severe storms across far northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin, while the rest of the area will be under a slight risk.

The biggest threats will be strong winds and very heavy rain with the possibility of flash flooding.

Make sure to check back for more forecast updates through the day and into the weekend.

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