Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Timing the Rain this Week

We've been talking about the 'ring of fire'  pattern that will be setting up over the country this week, where a dome of heat builds across the center of the country, and where more of an active storm track develops on the outer edge of that dome.

The excessive heat expands all the way up into the Quad Cities area, with Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings in place through most of Illinois and into Iowa and Missouri. Since the Stateline is right on the outer edge of the extreme heat, that means we are under the area which favors storm development. Our southwest counties like Carroll, Whiteside, and Lee, have a higher chance though of climbing into the low 90's as the heat expands. As dew points rise we need to watch for increasing heat index values, many of the days will feel like we're in the 90's.

But again we also need to watch for storm development the next several days. With high precipitable water available, heavy rain totals are possible and something that we need to watch out for. We will have multiple storm chances beginning Tuesday evening and lasting through Saturday early afternoon. Timing the energy waves, or vorticities, is always tricky...but right now it looks like the highest chances for storms will be in the evenings.

Storms tonight will be more widely scattered to isolated through Wednesday morning. Most of Wednesday actually ends up fairly dry, with another round of rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Storms Wednesday night and Thursday night look to bring the highest potential for heavy rain, but could also pose a threat for a few stronger storms as well. The active pattern continues with storms chances through Friday and into early afternoon on Saturday.

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