Scattered snow showers possible Wednesday, arctic air moves in late Thursday

 

As of 4:40 AM, most snow showers on satellite and radar through the overnight hours, and early morning have been much weaker compared to some of the model guidance forecasted with this disturbance currently moving through. Thanks to some dry air present in our atmosphere, heavier snowfall totals were not achieved and most of the heaviest snow has moved out just in time for the morning commute. If you do head out though, still keep an eye on untreated roadways.

The chance for snow shower returns this evening as another weak disturbance will pass overhead. By 7 p.m. tonight expect another sound of scattered snow showers across the region, however snowfall totals don't look to exceed two inches. However, any snowfall that fell this morning, including any additional snowfall later will promote the possibility of blowing snow.

The unfortunate news is that temperatures tomorrow won't see much improvement as we'll be in the teens through the afternoon. Into the evening an arctic cold front will sweep through sending very cold temperatures into the region as we'll plummet below zero with wind chill values dropping below -30° into Friday morning.

 

A strong high-pressure system will be responsible for this arctic air moving in which initially will push wind gusts as high as 30-35 mph into Friday morning. As mentioned, this will send wind chill values below -30° which has already prompted the National Weather Service to issue Extreme Cold Watches for the entire region. Through the next few days, cold safety will be crucial if you decide to go outside making sure to wear multiple layers and limiting time outdoors. 

Winter Weather Advisory extended for parts of northern Illinois: Timing out the snow Tuesday night

 

The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended to include now: Carroll, Ogle, and DeKalb counties, while keeping Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Winnebago, Boone, and McHenry counties in northern Illinois and Green, Rock, and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin. The advisory will go into effect at 8p/9p, depending on specific location and will last through Wednesday morning.

Cloud cover has been on the increase Tuesday afternoon ahead of light snow showers that are currently moving across the Midwest. There is some dry air to overcome initially, but I anticipate the snow to move in from west to east after 7p/8p, with the bulk of the accumulating snow center around the 11p-2am time frame. While most locations are likely to receive between 1-3 inches, there could be some areas that pick up between 3-4, locally 5, inches wherever any heavy snow banding may occur. I think the best location for this to happen will be centered around the Highway 20 corridor and points north. There may also be a sharp cut-off in snow accumulations down towards I-88.

Most of the snow will be wrapping up by sunrise Wednesday, but a few lingering light snow showers and snow flurries may continue through roughly 8-9a. While the accumulating snow will be done during that time, there are likely to be impacts for the morning commute and you'll want to make sure you give yourself a little extra time. A brief area of high pressure will move in Wednesday afternoon which will give us a little break from some of the cloud cover. Temperatures will warm back into the

mid and upper 20s. Between 6p-8p an Arctic cold front will move in with another batch of snow. This second round will last for a couple hour period but could also come with some wind. As a result, blowing and drifting snow may occur through Wednesday night.

Few snow chances arise ahead of the coldest air of the season

ALERTS: Tuesday will begin with dry with lots of sun, though we can expect cloud cover to increase as the afternoon progresses. This is due to our next clipper system which models show arriving overnight into the early Wednesday. Ahead of this system, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for counties hugging the Illinois/Wisconsin border. This will begin late this evening and last until 6AM Wednesday.

TIMING: Fortunately, this will not impact the evening commute as scattered light snow should start to move in after 8/9PM. The snow will be light but with temperatures in the teens, we'll likely see it fluff up between 1-3", with the highest amounts occurring near the Wisconsin/Illinois state line. An isolated 4" total or two cannot entirely be ruled out.

  

While snow chances look to wrap up before the morning commute, travel impacts are likely. Similar to Monday, it may be a good idea to give yourself a little extra time for your travels. 

 

 

AFTERMATH:  Behind the departing low, winds take a turn to the south and southwest, which will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 20s. That will feel like a heat wave compared to what's to come. A strong cold front will swing through Wednesday evening, bringing another batch of scattered snow showers to the area. However, the bigger weather headline will be the brutally cold Arctic air that spills in behind the frontal passage.

Light snow expected Tuesday night for northern Illinois

 We are in the heart of the winter season, and this week does not disappoint with some dangerous cold arriving later in the week and weekend. Think of Monday's cold as the 'practice' for what is to come this weekend. But before we get into the cold let's talk about the snow that is set to arrive later in the evening Tuesday.

Rest of Monday evening/night:

After a sun-filled, but cold, Monday cloud cover can be seen moving in from the west and northwest this evening. This is tied to an upper-level disturbance that'll quickly slide across the Midwest and Great Lakes. It'll likely just bring the cloud cover with it this evening, but there have been a few flurries flying across the Upper Midwest. So, while it is very dry, I can't totally discount a flurry or two through the evening. I don't anticipate many (if any) impacts should we see those flurries other than reduced visibility down to a few miles. The cloud cover will keep temperatures from bottoming out initially, but we do start to clear by Tuesday morning which will likely allow us to drop below zero around sunrise. This will result in wind chills during the morning down around -10 to -15 degrees.

Tuesday:

The day will start off quiet and dry with temperatures warming into the upper teens as winds turn to the southwest. Cloud cover will be on the increase during the afternoon and evening which when combined with an increasing southwest wind, will allow temperatures to hold steady if not rise a bit into Wednesday morning.  

A fast-moving clipper system will move across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Tuesday night. This will allow snow to develop ahead of the low Tuesday evening, overspreading much of the region during the overnight. The snow will mostly be light but with temperatures in the 20s we'll likely see it fluff up between 1-3 inches, with the highest occurring near the Wisconsin/Illinois state line.

Wednesday:

Most of the snow will be wrapping up early Wednesday morning but there could still be a few flurries or light snow showers during the early morning commute. Slick and snow-covered roads will be likely Wednesday morning, so it may be a good idea to give yourself a little extra time on the morning commute. There will be a brief break where we could see some sun during the afternoon but a cold front moving in Wednesday evening will produce another round of snow, likely having an impact on the evening commute. From that, another 1-2 inches could fall. Temperatures on Wednesday will be at their 'warmest' this week, with highs reaching the mid and upper 20s.

Thursday and beyond:

A second cold front will sweep across the Midwest Thursday bringing with it another round of light flurries/snow, but with little accumulation. The bigger story will be the cold that will settle in Friday morning, lasting through the weekend. Temperatures on Thursday will remain in the teens for highs, with Rockford reaching a high of 16. A very strong Polar high-pressure system will move down from Canada and into the High Plains Thursday night/Friday morning causing temperatures to plummet. When you wake up Friday morning temperatures will be down around -10 degrees with wind chills as low as -30! Temperatures will struggle Friday afternoon, having a hard time even rising to zero! Right now, the forecast 'high' for Friday is -3 degrees.

High pressure will settle overhead Friday night, and this could end up being our coldest night depending on clearing, wind speed, and actual air temperature. The forecast low for Friday is -15 degrees. Saturday doesn't bring us much improvement with highs rising only to around zero degrees and then falling back to -11 Saturday night.  

Buckle up! Another plunge of frigid Arctic air is on the way

Frigidly Cold Holiday: Cold weather advisories extend from the Upper Great Plains to New England this morning. For our northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin counties, this will run until noon today as wind chill values could fall within the -20° to -25° range. Gross. Fortunately, it is Martin Luther King Jr. Day so most of you will have the day off from work or school. However, if you have to out and about this morning, dress accordingly. Frostbite can occur in as little as 30 minutes. 

Winds will remain rather strong during the morning hours, gusting up to 35-40 mph. We should see a gradual decrease in our winds as the afternoon progresses. This will likely leave wind chill values well-below zero and afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid single digits. 
 

 

Wednesday's Clipper: Improvements begin to file in Tuesday as winds turn more to the south and southwest. This will at least get us back into the mid to upper teens for highs, with 20s on the table for Wednesday. It's also during this time in which we see clouds gather up as our next clipper system approaches. With it will be a batch of scattered snow showers which forecast models show arriving as we approach midnight, with chances lingering into the morning commute Wednesday. 

Next Round of Arctic Air: A strong Arctic high pressure system will sink down, taking over much of the central lower 48 by late Thursday. Forecast models place said high overhead late Friday into early Saturday, allowing the the coldest air of the winter season to spill in. Overnight lows fall below zero starting Thursday, possibly dropping as low as -10 Friday night and Saturday night. Afternoon highs will end up around 10 degrees Friday, dropping into the single digits for Saturday and Sunday. 

Monday morning update on road conditions

4AM UPDATE: Snowfall from Sunday evening and Sunday night as well as this morning's blowing and drifting snow has left roads in very rough shape across several counties. Stephenson, Jo-Daviess, and Carroll Counties are reporting completely covered roads, while Winnebago, Boone, Ogle and DeKalb Counties are experiencing roads that are mostly covered in snow. Those planning to travel are urged to use extra caution as well as maintain a safe following distance from other vehicles. 

Strong arctic front brings dangerous cold and blowing snow

 9:30PM RADAR: The arctic cold front is pushing across the Mississippi River, producing some gusty snow showers along the edge of it. NW wind gusts will increase to 35+ mph shortly behind the front, causing some blowing and drifting. Temps drop sharply, down below zero tonight with wind chills well below zero.

Most of the steady snow will wind down through 11PM, but a few pockets of steady snow showers within intermittent flurries may still be possible into the night. Increasing Northwest wind gusts will approach 35 mph after 12AM, leading to blowing and drifting snow and some continued slick spots into Monday afternoon.

The strong winds will lead to quickly falling temperatures and increasingly cold wind chills. By midnight, wind chills will reach below zero. Minimum wind chills will reach -20° to -25° by 5AM and remain below -20° through 12PM Monday. If you must be outdoors, be sure to dress in layers, as frostbite is possible in under 30 minutes in those conditions!

A cold weather advisory (previously called wind chill advisory) will go into effect at 3AM and run through 12PM across the entire Stateline. Wind chills could briefly reach as low as -30° for a few spots Northwest of Rockford early Monday morning. Chills will remain below zero through Tuesday afternoon but will not be as dangerously cold after Monday morning.

Continued snowfall followed by bitter cold into Monday morning

 

Following the steady snow showers that moved through the region yesterday we will once again see a very similar situation play out this afternoon. With another upper-level wave pushing through this afternoon, steady snow showers will be possible starting as early as 12-1 p.m. for Northwestern portions of the region while areas east will see steady snowfall by 2-3 p.m. Just like yesterday though, snowfall totals won't be much to worry about as most areas will remain under 2 inches today.

The main concern will be the bitter cold that follows this afternoon's snowfall as a strong arctic front will plummet temperatures across the state line into tomorrow morning. Surface temperatures will drop below zero into tomorrow morning while Wind Chill values accompanying that will drop near -20°. This has prompted the Nation Weather Service to issue Cold Weather Advisories through the night tonight into tomorrow late morning.

As mentioned, temperatures will plummet quickly into the night which will be accompanied by wind gusts as high as 35 mph into the early morning hours. This will plummet Wind Chill temperatures well below zero and even possibly below -20°. If you do plan on being outside tomorrow morning, make sure to limit time outdoors and dress with multiple layers as frostbite in these conditions can develop in 30 minutes or less. 
 

Another round of steady snow Sunday, bitter cold to follow

 Yet another round of light snow showers will slide through the Stateline Sunday afternoon, in very similar fashion to how Saturday's snow showers went. Much of the morning will start dry, as temperatures climb from the single digits to the mid-teens.

Light to steady snow may begin as early as 12-1PM for Northwestern parts of the area, pushing toward I-39 after 2-3PM. Heaviest pockets of snow will again be capable of coating roadways and reducing visibility. Blowing and drifting snow will be more of a concern Sunday with winds picking up through the afternoon and evening. Steady snow may persist into the late evening before a strong arctic front brings steady snow to an end between 10PM-12AM.

The strongest push of arctic air will arrive Sunday evening, sending temperatures down near or below zero by Monday morning. The strong arctic front will also bring Northwest wind gusts of 30-35 mph. Resulting wind chills will drop toward -20° or -25° Monday morning. Frostbite is possible in under 20 minutes in this bitter cold.

A cold weather advisory will go into effect for NW IL (Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside Counties) Sunday night into Monday morning where the highest confidence on dangerously cold wind chills will be likely. Wind chills will be near -20° to -25° areawide through mid-morning Monday.

Light to steady snow Saturday afternoon

 6:45PM UPDATE: Steady snow showers persist to the East of I-39, with spotty flurries elsewhere. Light/steady snow will wind down after 8PM, with intermittent flurries continuing through the night. Temperatures will drop to the single digits with wind chills below zero.

Light to steady snow continues to slowly push across the Stateline, moving Northwest to Southeast. Main impacts will be reduced visibility, but the deeper pockets of snow may quickly coat roadways, so use caution traveling this afternoon!

Snow will slowly taper off through the evening, with the steadiest remaining in place early in the afternoon. Steadier pockets of snow may cause reduced visibility and a quick coating of snow on roadways. Light snow continues into the late evening with a few flurries persisting into the night.

Wind chills will drop quickly this evening, reaching down below zero right around midnight. Minimum wind chills will be down around -10° overnight into Sunday morning. Another round of light snow will be possible Sunday afternoon, with a similar dusting of snow like we have seen Saturday afternoon.

Bitter cold arrives this weekend along with daily snow showers

 

Just like yesterday, snow showers will be possible this afternoon however unlike yesterday, temperatures will be a lot cooler and will stay cold for the foreseeable future. Temperatures today won't climb out of the teens while a consistent breeze out of the west-northwest will bring wind chill values down into the single digits for most of the day.

As mentioned above, snow showers will once again be possible towards the midday day hours and into the afternoon. Scattered to widespread showers will move into the region by 12 p.m. today and will last into the overnight hours. Because of the scattered nature, snowfall totals will remain less than 2 inches today however totals may see an increase into tomorrow.

A similar situation will play out tomorrow as more snow showers will move through the region during the afternoon lasting until the early evening hours. This time around, snow showers may be a bit more widespread along with carrying slightly better snowfall rates. Once again, a dusting to 2 inches will once again be possible, so total snow accumulation from both Saturday and Sunday may be approaching 2-3" in spots by Sunday evening.

 Not only will these incoming systems carry the possibility of snow showers, but they will also add to our already bitter cold. Temperatures into the nighttime hours over the next few days will be hovering in the single digits while wind chill values will fall into the negatives. Wind Chill values may drop as low as -20° or below by Monday morning.

 

More light snow this weekend paired with bitter cold

 Additional snow showers will be likely at times this weekend with some bitterly cold air settling in. Both afternoon highs will remain in the teens with overnight lows in the single digits or close to zero.

The first main window for light snow will be centered around mid-day Saturday, with the steadiest of the snow falling between 10AM-2PM. Between a half inch and an inch of snow could come down through the afternoon. With temperatures in the teens this will be enough to coat the roads once again.

Yet another round of light snow will be possible Sunday, with the timing shifted a bit further out compared to Saturday's snow. The main window of this snow will be centered around early afternoon, with steadiest snow falling between 12-4PM. Another half inch to maybe a little more than an inch will be possible, coating the roads yet again. In total, between 1-3" of snow may come down over the course of the weekend, but it will be too spread out to cause significant travel concerns.

Bitter cold is set to follow the weekend snow, with temperatures dropping to the single digits at night the next several nights. Afternoon highs won't make it out of the teens through at least Tuesday. Wind chills will make things feel even colder. Sunday morning, minimum wind chills will be near -10°. By Monday morning, wind chills will be closer to -20° or colder. Wind chills will finally return above zero Tuesday.

 

Gusty snow showers possible Friday evening

 Steady snow has persisted into the late evening for parts of Southern Wisconsin, with a pocket of snow now pushing across Green/Rock Counties. Visibility is down to 2 miles in Monroe with the steadier pockets of snow. Elsewhere, just a few lingering flurries through the night.

Gusty snow showers will be possible Friday evening, with sharply reduced visibility and a quick coating of snow possible under each snow shower. The strongest of the snow showers just passed over Rochelle shortly after 4PM, bringing a swirling winter-scape for only about 15 minutes.

Winds are picking up along a passing cold front, with gusts pushing 40 mph in a few spots West of I-39 as of 4:30PM. Winds may remain strong through the night, with gusts around 30 mph through Saturday morning.

A few isolated snow showers will be possible through 7-8PM before drier air filters in behind the cold front later this evening. Each gusty snow shower may bring sharp drops in visibility along with a coating of snow. A few flurries will remain possible into the night.