Afternoon Update

Current Visible Satellite

12:45pm Update: The cloud cover from this morning has thinned enough with partly sunny skies early this afternoon.  Temperatures continue to rise into the upper 70s with the lower 80s to our east.  Dew points remain in the mid and upper 60s making it fairly muggy outside.  There are a few outflow boundaries from the storms this morning moving across parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri and northeast Illinois.  As that outflow boundary in northeast Illinois continues it's possible there could be some convection that develops in the next couple hours.  An isolated storm has formed in Dane County and is currently moving northeast.  We'll continue to monitor trends going into the afternoon and evening.



11:30am: Cloud cover from storms in Iowa earlier this morning have moved into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Storms in central Wisconsin have intensified a little as they move northeast.

Looking at the current visible satellite image it does show the cirrus deck starting to thin a little across the area, but also a few agitated cumulus clouds building.  Instability is rising across the area thanks in part to the thinning cirrus clouds.  Another interesting feature is a smaller circulation northeast of Dubuque, Iowa likely associated with the convection in Wisconsin.  It's possible that as this circulation moves into central Wisconsin there could be a few showers/thunderstorms that develop along the southern edge in southern Wisconsin. 

Temperatures have been rising into the middle 70s with dew points also in the middle 60s.  A moisture rich air mass will continue to lift north on the nose of a weakening low level jet this afternoon.  I'm still watching the potential for some of these outflow boundaries to possibly interact with one, the circulation in Wisconsin and two, the warm and moist air mass this afternoon.  A disturbance in the Plains will lift northeast later today and as the evening progresses may interact with the low level jet as it intensifies.  It's possible the best threat for thunderstorms may be tonight.