Very warm and windy today; Storms later this evening

Strong southerly winds this afternoon will push temperatures into the low 90s later today across much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  These strong winds have developed out ahead of a cold front that stretches from northern Wisconsin southwest through western Iowa and back into Kansas.

Ongoing thunderstorms this morning in Minnesota have moved northeast and fizzled some, but there have been a few storms that have developed around Rochester, MN.  Low pressure sits west of Des Moines, IA and will move into southeastern Minnesota later this afternoon.  Despite temperatures rising into the upper 80s/low 90s today moisture return remains minimal.  Because of that we really haven't had much instability develop so far today.  Having said that almost all of Wisconsin and parts of northeast Iowa and Minnesota have been placed under a moderate risk for severe weather while a slight risk extends across northern Illinois.  Despite the lower instability values an approaching upper level disturbance moving out of Nebraska will lift into the upper Midwest and become the focus for generating thunderstorms later this afternoon.  This disturbance will help create divergence aloft (lift needed to generate storms) from Wisconsin back into northeast Iowa.  It's also in that general area where better moisture values will be found along with high lapse rates (change of temperatures with height). 

We'll look for storms to develop from Iowa and points north later this afternoon ahead of the cold front and quickly move to the northeast.  As the front itself begins to march east it's possible individual storm cells may form into a line and move across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  This, however, doesn't appear to happen until after 7pm.  Greatest threat from any storms that may form would be the stronger wind gusts, but once we get later into the evening the storm threat would begin to decrease. 

On a side note:  The Quad Cities NWS office will be launching a special upper air weather balloon launch this afternoon to gain a better sampling of the atmospheric conditions.  Once that comes in we'll be able to provide additional updates on the surrounding environment.