How nighttime thunderstorm chances could impact daytime humidity

 Upcoming thunderstorm chances for the next few overnights will likely have a big impact on the degree of heat and humidity coming the day after. After a hot and humid Sunday in the Stateline, we could be looking at our first of a few nighttime storm chances late tonight. Each round of storms will be weakening as they approach the area but could bring pockets of gusty winds and heavy rain within the strongest pockets of storms. Each round will also heavily influence the daytime humidity and storm chances.

The first potential round of storms will arrive after 2-3AM tonight in a weakening fashion, with some staying dry into the morning. These storms do not look to linger long, but an isolated shower/storm may be possible as late as 9AM. If we see stronger storms for the morning, this could hinder recovery of humidity by the afternoon, while weaker or no morning round may indicate a hotter afternoon with only very isolated thunderstorm chances. At the moment, the latter of the two solutions looks most plausible.

We should dry out for the afternoon, with temperatures rebounding to the low 90s and dew points rebounding to the upper 70s. This would mean peak heat index values will rise near or above 100°. A heat advisory will be in effect area-wide from 12-8PM Monday for this potential.

A very similar risk for storms will develop again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Like the night before, storms will arrive well after midnight and could linger into the mid-morning hours. These storms would again pose a risk for gusty winds and heavy rain. If they fizzle or clear quicker, the afternoon could bring an isolated risk for additional thunderstorms. Either way, temperatures will rise back near 90° with dew points in the mid-70s Tuesday, placing heat index near 100°. Another heat advisory may be needed for Tuesday.

Best coverage of showers and storms will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold front approaches the region. These storms may again pose a risk for gusty winds and very heavy rainfall, and these may linger into Wednesday afternoon. With the front pushing South by then, high temperatures will hover near or just below 80° Wednesday. We will dry out Wednesday night as high pressure and a much drier air mass settles in to take us through the end of the week.