5:20 a.m. Radar: Throughout the morning today we will be monitoring a large complex of thunderstorms off to our west that will gradually move south and east through time. Depending on how this complex trends, many changes may still come in the forecast for today. But as of now all eyes are on the storms to our west to see if they intensify.
This first round of storms is expected to make its way into the state line one way or another in the next coming hours. Different weather models solutions have placed this system in different spots however what we do know is that this system will most likely follow the instability axis, or the area with the most instability. Either way, expect at least some thunderstorms moving in by 9-10 a.m. this morning, the severity of some of these is still in question though.
The Storm Prediction Center has kept their slight risk (2/5) risk for scattered severe thunderstorms this morning and into the afternoon. The main risk highlighted continues to be damaging wind gusts with this system early on along with any storms that are able to redevelop later this evening.
With the first round of storms moving in this morning though, the environment into the evening may not recover in time to allow further storms to develop. Instability continues to be a large factor in the forecast this evening, and with the morning round eating up a lot of instability we may not have enough time for more unstable air to move into the region to help force storms along the cold front moving in this evening.
Today continues to be a changing forecast, however the one thing that remains clear is the signal for morning storms. Once again, we will see these move in by 9 a.m. this morning but what happens later this afternoon is still a bit unclear. This will be a changing forecast so make sure to stay in tune with updates this morning and into the evening!
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