A couple rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday. The first round will be centered around the morning, with another round possible between the afternoon and evening. There are a lot of things that still need sorted out with the forecast before tomorrow.
The first round of storms will develop across the Northern Plains Friday evening before sliding our way overnight. We will stay dry through at least dawn Saturday morning before coverage of storms may increase after 7-8AM. This window will bring the potential for a few strong to severe storms along with heavy rain.
What we do or don't see in the morning will heavily dictate our chances in the afternoon. Stronger storms in the morning could limit the atmosphere from recovering by the afternoon, keeping things mostly dry aside from an isolated shower or storm. If we see weaker or no morning storms, the afternoon and evening window would be more favorable for strong to severe storms. Right now, the most likely scenario is for stronger storms in the morning and a weaker round in the afternoon.
One of the main things that helps fuel storms is instability, or storm energy. We will see quite a bit of that as a warm front lifts through the area ahead of the morning round of storms. These storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts and heavy rain as they roll through mid-Saturday morning.
Behind that first potential round, storm energy will be slow to build back up, despite increasing humidity. If this occurs, afternoon and evening storms would only be isolated and generally a bit on the weaker side. If we see limited morning storms, instability will build up for the afternoon, creating the potential for some stronger afternoon storms as a cold front approaches.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a broad region from Iowa to Ohio under a Level 2/5 Slight risk, encompassing the entire Stateline. The highest threat locally will be with damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.
No comments:
Post a Comment