Midweek storm chances return, Severe storms possible

 
The hazy and smokey skies from Sunday afternoon cleared enough to allow temperatures Monday to warm into the mid-80s, right on track for where we should be for mid-July. Quiet conditions can be expected through the night as overnight lows fall into the low 60s.

Most of Tuesday will be dry, but hot and humid. Dew point temperatures will climb throughout morning pushing heat index values into the low to mid 90s, as the actual high temperature reaches the upper 80s. Moisture creeping in from the south may lead to a few late day showers, but most of those should remain south of the immediate viewing area.

Eyes will be watching thunderstorms to the west Tuesday and Tuesday night as the remnants of thunderstorms from the Plains move into the Midwest early Wednesday. This will likely lead to the redevelopment of thunderstorms locally Wednesday afternoon and evening, some of which will be on the strong to severe side.

Jet stream winds early this week are what meteorologists refer to as 'zonal flow', meaning they move from west to east. By the middle of the week a little 'kink' in the flow will develop, likely aiding in a remnant surface low pressure system moving in locally Wednesday evening. High moisture and building instability during the afternoon will help fuel the redevelopment of thunderstorms during that time, some of which could be on the severe side with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Atmospheric moisture is also going to climb ahead of the low - meaning any thunderstorm that does develop will be very efficient at producing heavy rainfall. As such, there is a 'marginal' risk for isolated severe storms for our area Wednesday afternoon and evening, along with a 'marginal' risk for excessive rainfall during that same time.

A cold front passing to the south early Thursday should take the highest storm threat south with it during the afternoon. If the front, however, slows down then the storm chance would continue locally Thursday.