Highs Monday afternoon topped 90° and today we'll pretty much be in the same territory. A surface ridge of high pressure stretched across the lower Great Lakes will keep mostly sunny skies with us this afternoon. A weak cool front moving in from the northwest will move through later this evening and clear us by Wednesday afternoon.
Thunderstorms earlier this morning were ongoing across Minnesota and the northern Plains but as those storms moved southeast they began to fizzle because they encountered a drier air mass. As we go through this afternoon, I expect storms to redevelop across central Wisconsin (already starting to see a few radar returns late this morning) and across northeast Iowa as an upper level disturbance rides overtop an upper level ridge that is currently in the southwest. The storms will progress to the southeast through the late afternoon and evening and there could be a few rumbles across our far northwest counties by this evening.
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Once this front passes an area of high pressure will move in for Thursday and Friday bringing a more comfortable air mass with highs in the low 80s. By the time we head into this weekend, however, southwest winds will not only bump temperatures in the 90s but also bring higher dew points. The image on the left is the graphical output from all of our models, taken at different run times. While the most recent runs from this morning aren't completely out, I want you to notice what's circled in red. This is the graphical depiction of the forecast heat index. On the left, you'll see the corresponding heat index values and last night's run of the GFS model is calling for heat index values getting close to 105° by Sunday and Monday. It's also calling for dew points near 80° which I think may be a little excessive! Either way, it does appear as if the mercury will rise back to 'uncomfortable' levels by the end of this weekend. Unfortunately, like I said yesterday, it also appears as if any decent rains will be few and far between.
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