For all you severe weather junkies out there, there hasn't been much to be excited about this year, and it looks like that trend will continue for a while longer. The NWS out of Chicago has seen a sharp decline in severe weather warnings that have been issued this year. As of today, we've only seen a total of 48 warnings issued for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes for the NWS Chicago area, which includes Rockford. This is well below the average of 90 we've seen over the past couple of years.
So what's going on to keep severe weather at bay? One of the big reasons is the jet stream. For most of the spring season, the jet stream has been to our northwest. This has done two things. First, It's allowed us to tap into much hotter air from our south. When the atmosphere gets too warm, it forms a "cap" that makes it harder for storms to form, thus limiting severe chances. The jet also acts as a transport for moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Since the jet has stayed north, that conveyer belt for moisture is cut off. Without moisture, storms have a hard time forming... let alone becoming severe.
Expect more of the same for tonight. Despite a cold front pushing through later this evening, we'll only be talking scattered showers and storms. Severe weather chances look to hold to our west.
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