Holiday travel forecast leading up to Christmas

 Following our fresh snowfall from Thursday into Friday morning, a cooler air mass will settle in through the weekend. Starting with Friday night, overnight lows will dip into the teens and near single digits for some. Be cautious of any re-freezing of untreated surfaces through Saturday morning. The afternoon will be warmer, but highs only reach the low 20s under a partly cloudy sky. Sunday will be milder with highs in the low 30s, but our next weather system could follow into the night.

High pressure dominates the forecast through the weekend, so optimal travel conditions across the region can be expected Saturday and much of Sunday. But Sunday night, our next system will be moving in from the West.

The next weather system will arrive Sunday night into Monday morning. Locally, a few rain showers with a small chance for some freezing rain will be possible during this time. Further North, another round of accumulating snow could occur from Wisconsin into Michigan and further East. Temperatures Monday will be in the upper 30s locally.

Another period of dry weather across the region for much of Monday night-Tuesday, but the next system could bring periods of steady rain starting late Christmas Eve. These could last even into Christmas Day.

The combination of any rain we see along with milder air is likely to melt most if not all of this snow just before Christmas. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 30s starting Monday, with overnight lows not far from the freezing mark. Any steady rain we see will only increase that melting right before Christmas. The "White Christmas" chances looking lower and lower by the day.

Travel impacts likely during Friday morning's commute

A wave of steady snow wrapping around the departing low has made it's way into northern Illinois prior to the morning commute. 

With temperatures sitting below freezing, it's likely that roads will be slick or snow-covered. Not only will you have to deal with that, winds have picked up a bit, which along with the snow showers has caused visibility to drop. Plan on giving yourself extra time as well as using caution while traveling. 

The good news is, snow won't last long. In fact, we are seeing the edge of the precipitation now make it's way into southern Wisconsin as of 5:30AM. Snow will wrap up before mid-morning, leaving us mostly cloudy, chilly and breezy. Temperatures will peak in the upper 20s early this afternoon, then fall into the mid to low 20s by the evening commute. 

 

Astronomical winter begins Saturday, and boy will it feel like winter. Colder air filtering in behind today's snow-maker will leave tonight's lows in the low teens and highs Saturday in the low 20s. 

On the plus side, winds will be much lighter and Saturday features the return of that beautiful gaseous orb in the sky (the sun). Sunday will also be dry, though cloud cover will slowly gather up as our next storm system begins to take shape. 

This system will arrive Monday, bringing with it warmer temperatures but also a chance for a rain/snow mix. Forecast models this morning have come in with a more northerly jump in the track, leaving afternoon highs in the upper 30s. That's why I do think most of what falls Monday will be in the form of rain. Precipitation chances drop from there, leaving only a slight chance for rain Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Afternoon highs will remain above freezing, landing in the upper 30s.

Early look at the Stateline's Christmas weather forecast

 Will it be a white Christmas in the Stateline this year? A white Christmas is officially when there is 1" or more of snow depth Christmas morning. Historically, Rockford has a slightly less than 50/50 shot of a white Christmas, only meeting those criteria 45% of the time. But we have seen decent snowfalls, including more than 3" of snow between Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Over this weekend, we will continue to see cooler weather stick around with highs well below freezing and overnight lows in the teens for a few days under high pressure. This chill will help to keep some of the snow around at least through the weekend.

But the overall pattern will flip into early next week and beyond. There is a 90-100% probability to see above average temperatures between the 25th and 29th of December. This would indicate far more 40s and 50s than 20s and 30s like is average for this time of year. Unfortunately, that means the snow we have in place now may not remain too much longer. But will it be 1" on Christmas morning? Possibly, but no guarantee. Forecast high temperatures are currently between 36-39° from Monday to Thursday next week, so some melting of the snow can be expected.

Christmas Day is unlikely to feature fresh-falling snow showers, with a higher chance for rain than snow. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s during this time.

Impactful snow returns Thursday evening into Friday morning

The snow from Wednesday's quick-moving clipper system took a small bite out of our monthly deficit, leaving our snow total at 2.2".

Disturbance #2, which at the the moment is bringing scattered heavy snow to northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin, will bring us a second opportunity for accumulating snow. Thursday starts off with dry but cloudy conditions, though a few flurries cannot be ruled out.  

Initially, areas in southern Wisconsin will be the first to witness snowflakes, followed by our locales in northern Illinois as the afternoon progresses. Steady snow this evening will heighten travel impacts, so plan on giving yourself extra travel time and take it slow getting to where you need to be.

Forecast models then show a brief break in the snow moving in this evening into early tonight, though snow will ramp up once again as we approach Friday morning's commute. In a similar fashion to Thursday evening, travel with caution Friday morning.

 

 

Snow looks to taper off before the noon hour, leaving those close to the Illinois/Wisconsin border with 1"-2" with less down by Interstate 88. North of Green, Rock, and Walworth Counties in southern Wisconsin, anywhere from 2" to 5" may fall. 

Cold winds behind today's snow-maker will leave afternoon highs near the 30° mark for Friday, then in the 20s for Saturday and Sunday. Coldest temperatures will be felt Saturday where highs will fail to reach the mid 20s.

Snow totals from Tuesday night and when the next chance for snow returns

 

The band of heavy snow that moved in late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning was a bit of an overproducer, yielding between 1-3 inches of snow across northern Illinois. Rockford's airport recorded 1.9 inches, with 3 inches reported in Pearl City, IL and 2 inches in Freeport, IL.

A break from the wintry weather can be expected Wednesday evening as cloud cover holds thick throughout the night. Temperatures will hold steady throughout the evening, dipping into the low 20s early Thursday.

Our next storm system located in the Pacific Northwest will move through the Rockies tonight, and then into the Plains and Midwest Thursday. As it does, winds will turn to the south Thursday ushering in a slightly warmer air mass. Just how warm will be key in what type of precipitation, and how much, we see Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures during the afternoon will warm into the low 30s once again.

The track of the low is forecast to move right over northern Illinois, centered along the Highway 20 corridor. This type of track favors areas north of the low to receive several inches of snow which is why there are Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in place stretching from Wisconsin back northwest into the Plains. 

South of the low snow totals will be less with a slightly higher chance for a little more of a wintry mix to occur. There continues to be some wobbles in the overall forecast model guidance with regards to the track of the low, but the forecast Wednesday evening calls for snow totals of 1-2 inches from near the state line down through Highway 72. North of the state line totals will be higher and locations south of I-88 may see more of a wintry mix during the late afternoon and evening. 

Following a lull in the precipitation Thursday evening snow showers will ramp back up early Friday as cold air wraps in behind the low. North winds will also increase, gusting 30-35 mph throughout the day Friday. The snow Friday morning will have an impact on the morning commute, so be prepared for slick and snowy conditions during the morning.   

Taste of winter continues with additional snow chances Thursday

From the widespread dense fog on Monday to the accumulating snowfall from last night, it hasn't been the best week for morning commuters. 

Northern Illinois is waking up to 1"-2 of fresh snow, which has left roads north of I-88 either partially or mostly-covered roadways. Be sure to add extra time to your morning routine, both for cleaning the fresh snow off your car but also for slippery travel.

Clouds hangs tight for the morning hours, though we should see a few peeks of sun poke out from time to time this afternoon. Behind today's clipper system, a cold breeze kicks up out of the northwest. This will severely limit our warm-up potential, landing high temperatures near the 32° mark. 

 

Cloud cover thickens up overnight as another wave descends into the Upper Great Plains. This one will take a similar track into the western Great Lakes, bringing with it another chance for accumulating snow late Thursday into early Friday. 

 

 

Totals locally will be very similar to last night's clipper system, 1"-2", with the potential for higher snow totals north of the IL/WI border. Extra caution, time will be needed for Thursday's evening commute as well as Friday morning's commute. 

Afternoon highs remain in the low 30s for the remaining days of the work week, then cool into the 20s for the upcoming weekend.

Tuesday afternoon weather update

 

We managed to squeeze out some sunshine Tuesday allowing temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 30s. Rockford's high officially reached 39 degrees, five degrees above average. Cloud cover has rolled back in, however, leaving skies mostly cloudy and temperatures holding steady in the low to mid 30s. Light snow has been showing up on radar, but little to none of those snow showers have been reaching the ground due to dry air in the low levels. Overtime the atmosphere will become saturated enough, allowing light snow to fall across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Snow accumulations won't be much - a dusting to around half an inch. But a narrow band of heavier snow may occur which could lead to slightly higher isolated totals for some. Be mindful that there could be some slick conditions through Wednesday morning's commute.

Temperatures will hold steady in the low 30s, briefly dropping into the upper 20s early Wednesday. Northwest winds will increase following the departing low with gusts around 25 mph. High pressure will briefly return Wednesday night clearing skies ahead of our next weather system, currently over the Pacific Northwest.

The next round of light snow moves in Thursday and Thursday night with some minor accumulations through Friday morning. Friday morning's commute could also feature a few slick conditions.  

Snow chances return tonight, the again late Thursday

Dense fog and low visibility has been the talk of the forecast over the last two days. Now, we turn our focus to the two disturbances that aim to bring wintry precipitation to the Stateline. The first is scheduled to come in tonight into early Wednesday and then the second, which looks to be the stronger of the two disturbances, arrives late Thursday. 

Tuesday may begin with a few peeks of sun, though cloud cover will be rather quick to thicken up as the first disturbance approaches. 

Afternoon highs will end up slightly lower compared to the past few days thanks to the influence of a cooler west-northwest wind, landing in the upper 30s. From there, a quick-moving Alberta clipper system will race southeastward through the Stateline, bringing with it the potential for light rain/snow mix into the early stages of Wednesday. If any snow were to accumulate, the most we'll be looking at is a trace to 1". Now, that doesn't sound like much, this may be enough for a few slick spots to form prior to the morning commute Wednesday. Behind this clipper system, cloud cover remains, though a few peeks of sun cannot be ruled out late in the day. Northwesterly winds pick up a bit, leaving afternoon highs around the freezing mark. 

It's then that a secondary and slightly more organized system takes aim at the Stateline. This one will take a similar track into the western Great Lakes, though it does seem the main precipitation shield will be north of the Illinois and Wisconsin border.

That's where you'll find the highest potential for snow totals, across central and northern Wisconsin. Right now, we're on the lower end of the measuring stick, maybe picking up another trace to 1". 

High pressure then slides in for the weekend. This will keep systems and snow chances away. However, temperatures cool down behind Thursday's disturbance, landing in the mid 20s Saturday then in the upper 20s Sunday afternoon.

Active pattern this week with more frequent precipitation chances

 It was a foggy morning and early afternoon in the Stateline. A passing cold front helped to draw in some drier air through the evening, which cleared out the fog and could bring a few breaks in the cloud cover overnight. Where clouds clear a bit more, temperatures could drop into the upper 20s for the overnight low.

Tomorrow will start out with some pockets of sunshine, but cloud cover fills back in through the mid-morning. Temperatures will only rise into the upper 30s as a result.

Our next weather system will bring a chance for some scattered snow showers Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning. Some of this may mix in with a little bit of rain given temperatures hovering just below freezing. The highest coverage of any snow showers would arrive after 9PM, with spotty snow showers lasting until 6AM. Total snow accumulations could reach a half inch for some. Given the mostly overnight timing of this system, only marginal impacts to the Wednesday morning commute can be expected.

A favorable pattern for more frequent weather systems will arrive through the middle of the week. This starts with a general Northwest to Southeast flow aloft, funneling multiple quick-moving weather systems our way Thursday into the weekend. Some of these may bring a chance for snow, depending on temperature profiles when the systems arrive.

The next main one would reach the Stateline in the Thursday time frame. In this scenario, the highest coverage of snow looks to favor areas to the North of Rockford for now, but there is time for this to shift. Stay tuned to the weather forecast and snow lovers: cross your fingers!

More dense fog across northern Illinois

Another dense fog advisory has been issued for all of Stateline counties through 11AM. 

This is how long we can expect visibility to be at or below a 1/4 mile, with the possibility for some patches of less dense fog to linger into the midday hours. Similar to Sunday morning, temperatures are on either side of the 40° mark, so we won't have any concerns with freezing fog.

Our next cold front is shown sliding through during the mid to late morning hours. With it may come a slim chance for some drizzle or an isolated shower. Clouds stays put this afternoon, though winds will increase out of the west. This will leave highs in the mid 40s. Some clearing takes place overnight, allowing lows to fall into the upper 20s. Tuesday kicks off with a few peeks of sun, with cloud cover quickly gathering up before midday. 

This all comes with our next disturbance that will help bring a scattered chance for a rain/snow mix Tuesday night. This is the first of two chances the Stateline will see this week for wintry precipitation. The second being Thursday afternoon into Thursday night in the form of snow showers.

Widespread dense fog through Monday morning

 It has been a very foggy day in the Stateline! After our first dense fog advisory was allowed to expire at noon, more waves of dense fog have been developing Sunday evening. Visibilities are near or below a half mile across the board as of 5PM, and at a quarter mile for many.

Around 3:30PM, this was the view of our downtown Rockford camera pointed toward the Jefferson Street bridge, showing the near zero visibility at times within this dense fog. You can view the current SkyTrack cameras across the Stateline from our weather page.

Another dense fog advisory has been issued for much of the Stateline through 9AM Monday morning. This is how long to expect visibility near 1/4 mile or less, with the possibility for some patches of less dense fog to linger into the late morning.

Luckily, temperatures are going to hold steady if not rise a degree or two through the night, so we have no concerns with freezing fog. Overnight "lows" will likely be near the 40° mark for most.

A few spotty showers may develop along a weak cold front overnight, with a small chance for some rain between 12AM-4AM. Monday afternoon will bring less in the way of fog, but cloud cover will remain in place with a gusty wind near 30 mph from the West through the evening.

Dense fog advisory issued for all of northern Illinois

Whether you have breakfast plans, plans to attend Sunday church, or plans to catch up on certain errands, travel with caution. 

A Dense Fog Advisory is in place for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin as visibility in most of our locales has fallen to a 1/4 mile or less. This advisory will run until noon. Fortunately, temps are sitting in the upper 30s this morning, meaning the threat for freezing fog is extremely low. 

Fog should let up to a cloudy sky for the afternoon, limiting highs to the low 40s. 

Our next disturbance arrives overnight, leaving thick clouds in place but also bringing a chance for a passing shower or two. Temperatures stay warm, landing in the upper 30s. Monday will be a copy paste of Sunday, starting with some fog and then mostly cloudy for the afternoon. Highs will be slightly warmer, landing in the mid 40s.

Icy roads possible as winter weather advisory remains in effect

 Radar showing a very colorful picture Saturday afternoon as waves of rain and wintry mix are moving through the Stateline. Pink colors indicate the highest chance for a mix or freezing rain as of 2:15PM. The area of precipitation is slowly spreading North-Northeast through the evening.

Some areas are reporting slick or ice-covered roads, especially to the Southwest of Rockford. Even worse road conditions have been reported in SE Iowa, just across the Mississippi. You can check current road conditions for Illinois here and Wisconsin here.

Temperatures are sitting just above freezing for most, allowing the rain to fall especially in Rockford (pictured in the background). But surface temperatures like roadways and sidewalks may be a couple degrees cooler, allowing for some ice to build up on untreated surfaces.

Any wintry mix will gradually switch over to all rain through the afternoon and evening. Steadier rainfall rates should also help ease any slick spots, aiding to melt any ice that had built up. Pockets of cold rain will then be possible through the evening, with the occasional slick spots especially in those locations whose temperatures rise slower. Areas Northeast of Rockford may see a freezing rain or mix through the evening.

All of the Stateline is under a Winter Weather Advisory through the majority of Saturday. The advisory remains in effect until 6PM for all our Northern Illinois counties, while the Southern Wisconsin Counties will remain in effect until 12AM Sunday.