Cool, windy, and wet pattern ahead this week

 Following some early day showers through Sunday evening, skies will gradually clear from North to South behind a passing front. This clearing will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s, meeting the dew point numbers. High humidity will result, and that paired with light winds will allow for some areas of fog to develop overnight. The highest coverage of any fog will be North of I-88, where clouds will clear quicker.

Morning fog will be replaced by rain showers by the late morning or early afternoon as the frontal boundary lifts back North amid a strengthening surface low pressure to the West. We may see a lapse in precipitation rates by late afternoon, but the evening brings steady to heavy rain with even a few embedded thunderstorms. Total rainfall may exceed 0.5-1.0" for some, with highest totals likely across Northwestern Illinois.

 

Monday will also be very breezy, especially during the latter part of the day. Temperatures will reach the mid-50s by the evening. Winds could gust to 30 mph by then, and around 35 mph overnight. This wind combined with the clouds and rain will not allow temperatures to fall very far Monday night, as they may actually rise overnight before reaching near 60° on Tuesday.

Winds will be one of the keys for the forecast this week, as we could see peak wind gusts near 20-30 mph Tuesday and Wednesday, then 20-35 mph Thursday. The direction of the wind will be the bigger factor into the forecast, though. The Southwest wind on Tuesday keeps us warm with highs near 60°. Westerly winds on Wednesday and Northwest winds on Thursday will help to usher in a cooler air mass, with highs in the 40s both of those days!

With temperatures that cool, we *may* even see the potential for a few snowflakes to mix in Wednesday night or Thursday morning, as moisture will linger on the Western edge of a developing low pressure to the East of us. During the daytime hours on Wednesday and Thursday, it will be too warm for snow, but we may get just cold enough Wednesday night for a few flurries to mix in! Any snow we do see will be very unlikely to stick, given the warm weather prior to this system. But the cooler weather will hang around all week, with highs in the 40s through next weekend.

Two strong weather systems bring waves of precipitation this week

 A few strong weather systems will bring more waves of precipitation our way next week, along with a big drop in temperatures. Before we get there, we may see a shower or two Sunday afternoon along a passing cold front. But moisture will be limited with lots of dry air in the low levels, so only an isolated shower may be possible. That said, I suspect many will remain dry. Some spots of clearing may allow temperatures to warm into the low 60s, but clouds will keep most in the 50s.

Our first widespread weather system will bring wave of rain showers between Monday and Tuesday. Some spots could see near 0.5-1.0" of rainfall, highest totals likely across NW Illinois into Iowa and Wisconsin, following the track of the low-pressure center. During this time. temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the 50s and 60s through Tuesday.

A second area of low pressure will develop Wednesday into Thursday just East of the Stateline, placing us on the cool end of the low with a strong rush of cool air flowing in behind the low. The strong low pressure will also develop a tight pressure gradient locally, allowing for strong winds mid-week.

You may have seen some speculation about the type of precipitation next week on the back edge of this system. For some clarification, it is very tricky to determine precipitation type this far out for a system where a margin of only a couple degrees means the difference between rain or two. We can say we are confident there will be a strong low pressure Thursday bringing a big draw of cold air with some lingering moisture. We don't know the exact placement of that low or how strong the push of cold air will be. As such, it is hard to determine precipitation type being 5 days away from this system. *IF* we see enough moisture and cold air, we *might* see a few snowflakes trying to mix in with rain in the Wednesday-Thursday window. Stay tuned as the details of this system become more refined next week!

Saturday morning weather update

 This past week has brought a much more normal pattern in terms of weather than we've experienced this fall. This week although still warm climatologically speaking, still felt like the first burst of fall air with multiple days of cool rain as well. Shifting our focus to the weekend and beyond, we look to remain in a comfortable pattern temperature wise to start but our first big cool down for the season looks to arrive later this week!

Through the weekend we'll remain in the 50's with cloud cover persistent through the weekend and into much of next week. Today though breezy conditions at the surface will stick around while through the night a very isolated shower may move through into Sunday morning. Rain chances this weekend will be isolated, but chances still do remain higher on Sunday.

As previously mentioned, shower chances tonight remain isolated as a weak cold front passes through but still be on the lookout for an overnight sprinkle. Tomorrow though chances are a bit higher as along, yet another cold front shower looks to initiate through the afternoon into the early evening. Don't expect too much rainfall though out of these showers as moisture fueling these showers isn't the best and any shoer that does initiate will not last long.

After a quick warmup through the beginning of the week a "dome" of cold air will be funneled down into the majority of the United States due to a large low-pressure system that will be overhead here Wednesday. This will be the coolest air we've felt this fall as temperatures are expected to drop into the low 40's and even low 30's into the overnight hours.

As of now some form of precipitation looks likely at least Wednesday when the low-pressure system is overhead, but the form of precipitation remains in question. Currently, surface temperatures look to remain just above freezing Wednesday night, but a drop of a few degrees will increase our chance at some form of wintry precipitation. Those chances remain lower though as of now but for locations further east their first snowfall may be almost guaranteed as those areas will have cooler surface temperatures and just a bit more moisture.

Regardless be on the lookout Wednesday as even with warmer surface temperatures a heavier rain event looks to take place with possible showers going into Thursday.

Beyond that though, temperatures look to remain cool through the weekend as cold polar air from Canada is expected to continue to be funneled into the Midwest. Say goodbye to the sun this week though as cloud cover looks to stay consistent this week! 

Cloudy and mild weekend ahead of a mid-week cool down

 The mild weather continues this weekend, but the cloud cover will return following a sunny Friday. Temperatures tomorrow will reach near the mid-50s very similar to the highs from today. Cloud cover will be replaced by breezy SSE winds as the driver behind the warmth, as gusts could reach 20-25 mph at times. Our next cold front will approach Saturday evening, but moisture will be very limited along it, preventing much widespread rain. We may see a spotty shower between 9PM-3AM, but otherwise we will remain dry.

We will remain mild over the weekend and into early next week with upper level flow from the Southwest through Tuesday. This will also promote the development of our next widespread weather system with rain chances Monday into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the 50s for highs and 30s/40s for lows through Tuesday.

But that same level will flip around Wednesday into Thursday with upper level troughing across the Eastern part of the country. This Northerly flow will bring our next push of truly cold air our way for the second half of next week. How long that cool air sticks around is a bit more uncertain, but it does appear likely there will be at least a few days featuring highs in the low to mid-40s after Tuesday. That drop in temperatures may feel significant, but it is really just a return closer to average, given normal high temperatures this time of year are the mid-40s.

Warm, breezy weekend ahead

Dense fog has been more of an issue for morning commuters west of the Mississippi River, hence the dense fog advisories. Locally, fog potential has been low thanks to the cloud cover in place.

I would still keep an eye out for patchy fog as we head into the mid-morning hours. From there, cloudy skies will give way to a few peeks of afternoon sun as an area of high pressure slides to our south. Cloud cover, along with a light northwesterly wind, will limit afternoon highs to the low 50s. 

At the same time, winds will shift to the southeast, allowing an influx in moisture to occur. This will help turn skies mostly cloudy into Saturday morning, leaving overnight lows in the upper 30s. 

Similar to today, cloud cover will stay put for most of the day, though an increasing southeast wind will leave afternoon highs in the upper 50s. A weak cold front then enters the equation Saturday night, adding in the chance for a shower or two. 

This cold front stays to our west Sunday, leaving flow out of the south and southwest. These warmer winds will help bring afternoon highs back into the upper 50s, close to the 60° mark. 

 

 

 

Models have been hinting at a stronger storm system arriving next week, one that could bring our first true cold snap of the season as well as our first flakes of the season. Typically, Rockford sees it's first trace of snow around the Halloween time frame, then our first 0.10" around November 20th.

Long term trends favor cooler pattern into the end of November

 It has been quite the warm and mild stretch for the first half of November, but we will likely see some big changes on the way. It all starts with the upper-level pattern into next week, where this large upper-level trough looks to develop mid-week. A trough of this size typically favors a big draw of cold air on the back side, so the placement of the trough will be a big player into how much cool air we see.

If the trough settles mostly West of us, milder air will be the story locally with Southerly flow, keeping us relatively warmer. Compare that to an Eastern trough with strong Northerly flow and cooler air being drawn in locally. In either scenario, temperatures will be cooler than they have been as of late, so a cool-down closer to average will be likely next week either way.

Looking ahead to the last week of the month, the trends from the Climate Prediction Center do not strongly favor above or below average temperatures locally between the 22nd-28th. This would favor temperatures near average, with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s. Compare that to the 50s and 60s high temperatures we have been getting so used to this month!

Cloudy skies stick around Thursday

 

Cloud cover has been rather slow to clear Thursday afternoon following the thick blanket of fog some woke up to earlier in the day. Despite the drier air moving behind the rain Wednesday evening, moisture trapped right down near the surface has been stubborn to clear out. In turn, this had led to cloudy skies across much of the Midwest.

The cloud cover has limited our overall temperature spread throughout the day, starting out in the upper 40s this morning, but only warming into the low 50s this afternoon. As the sun sets tonight it will likely set up another temperature inversion (warm air overtop cold air) which will help hold the cloud cover in place.

Fog will redevelop tonight with the lingering low-level moisture, leading to foggy conditions for Friday morning. Temperatures won't drop off much Thursday night, likely staying in the mid-40s. As cloud cover begins to depart Friday, we'll see conditions clear from west to east through the afternoon. The slower departure of the cloud cover will likely leave temperatures in the low to mid 50s for Friday afternoon.  

Big pattern change coming late next week

It has been quite the warm stretch so far this season, but especially so in the month of November. The only day this month to feature temperatures at or below average was the 1st, when we were only a degree shy of the 55° average high. The rest of the month has featured plenty of 50s and 60s. But some changes may be on the way toward this time next week.

Before we get there, the weekend will once again be a mild one, with highs making a run at the 60-degree mark each day. We will see our next slim chance for some rain showers Saturday night into Sunday, but many spots will not see much rain during this window.

Our next round of rain will move in between Monday-Tuesday as this weather system develops from the Desert Southwest into the Midwest/Great Lakes. Steady rain showers may be possible in the Mon-Tue window. Temperatures during this time will remain mild, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s/40s.

But as that system passes through Wednesday, it will begin to draw in much cooler air from back behind it. This rush of cold air will likely be the coldest of the season, pushing highs down into the 40s and lows possibly in the 20s. When we have air this cold, there is also a chance for some mixed precipitation. That said, the signals this far out are not very consistent, so we will still need to monitor this window after next Wednesday. It is worth noting that Rockford's first measurable snowfall occurs around the 20th of November.

Even though this will be air among the coldest we have seen this season, it will not be too far from average. Through the second half of November, average temperatures will continue dropping into the low 40s for highs and upper 20s for lows. So, while this air will come as a shock for many, it will actually be a return to "normal" for this time of year.

Incoming rain Wednesday evening

 

A few breaks in the cloud cover were noted Wednesday afternoon allowing for a little more sunshine as temperatures warmed into the low 50s in some locations. But cloud cover will quickly move back in as rain showers overspread central Illinois late Wednesday afternoon.

Low pressure located over Nebraska will move northeast Wednesday evening, reaching northern Illinois by daybreak Thursday. Increasing moisture will eventually overcome the drier air in place leading to showers overspreading the region later this evening.

The heavier rainfall is likely to remain focused across northeast Illinois and Indiana, but a steady rain is expected locally through the night. Rainfall totals will reach half an inch area wide before coming to an end Thursday. Lingering low level moisture and lighter winds will cause some areas of fog to form which could reduce visibility during the morning commute for a time.

Most of the accumulating rainfall will begin to wrap up mid-morning Thursday with cloudy skies expected throughout the afternoon. Temperatures Wednesday evening will drop into the mid-40s, possibly rising through start of Thursday. Winds will then shift to the northwest following the passage of the surface low during the morning which will keep temperatures in the low 50s.

Rain returns overnight, lingers into Thursday morning

Did you catch this morning's beautiful sunrise? The sky was on FIRE thanks to a batch of high clouds coming off the system in the central plains.

Cloud cover will be a big part of today's forecast, though the daylight hours will stay dry. Winds turn breezy out of the east-southeast, pushing afternoon highs back into the low 50s. 

Forecast models then show rain chances increasing a little bit after sunset, with steady and potentially heavy rainfall passing through overnight into the first few hours of Thursday. Rain will turn scattered as the storm system itself tracks over northern Illinois. Chances then come to a close around or shortly after mid-morning, leaving conditions dry and mostly cloudy for Thursday afternoon. 

While tonight's rainfall won‘t be a drought buster, most of us could end up with between .25" to .75" of rain. In a similar fashion to today, temperatures Thursday will peak in the low 50s. High pressure sliding in will bring a bit more sunshine for Friday, with highs peaking in the upper 50s. Temperatures remain above-average over the weekend, also peaking in the upper 50s, close to 60°.

Average first measurable snowfall not that far away

 

While there isn't any snow in the forecast just yet, our average first measurable snowfall usually occurs towards the end of November. Measurable snow is defined as snowfall of a tenth of an inch or more, and that typically occurs around November 20th. Our average first trace of snow is October 31st, and the average first inch of snow is usually around the 4th of December.

Last year our first inch of snow occurred on November 25th when 1.5 inches fell. The first trace of snow was on October 29th and then again on the 31st.

The average snowfall for the month of November is 2.3 inches, but there have been many years where the actual snowfall has been a lot higher. Our snowiest November on record occurred just six years ago in 2018 when 15.8 inches of snow fell! Before that, 1947 held the record with 14.8 inches. We likely won't break any snowfall records this November, but there are some signs that are beginning to point to a cooler and wetter trend towards the end of the month.  

Clouds break late Tuesday afternoon

 

It's nice to see the sunshine return following a cloudy and gloomy start Tuesday morning. Shifting winds off of Lake Michigan were enough to draw moisture in from the east allowing lake effect cloud cover to spread across much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

Temperatures before the cloud cover moved in Monday night fell into the 30s, but then began to rise as clouds thickened up through Tuesday morning. This caused a slow climb in temperatures throughout the day, with highs only reaching the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. But that temperature is closer to where we should be for mid-November.

Under mostly clear skies Tuesday night temperatures will fall into the mid-30s, but cloud cover once again will build back in from the south. This will turn skies mostly cloudy through Wednesday afternoon ahead of rain showers that are expected to move in Wednesday evening. 

Tuesday morning weather update

Skies were rather quick to turn mostly cloudy as we inched closer to sunrise. 

Wind flow coming off of Lake Michigan is the reason behind this morning's fresh batch of clouds. Expect it to slowly cave to more sunshine by midday as an area of high pressure moves overhead. 

 

Sunshine’s dominance along with a wind shift to the southeast should be enough to push afternoon highs back near the 50° mark. 

Thankfully, we can enjoy this afternoon's sunshine without gusty winds being involved. Mostly clear skies kick the night off, with a few clouds roaming in towards sunrise Wednesday morning. This, along with tonight's light southeasterly wind will leave lows temperatures in the mid 30s.

Clouds will further thicken up as our next system slides into the central plains. A spotty sprinkle or shower is possible Wednesday afternoon, with rain chances becoming more widespread overnight into the first half of Thursday. 

It does seem we will have enough moisture in play for a few heavy downpours. While this won‘t be a drought buster, most of us could end up with between a quarter and a half inch of rain. Ridging aloft will bring sunshine back into the equation to round out the work week. Afternoon highs will reach the low 50s Thursday, then inch closer to the 60° mark Friday and over the weekend.

Rain moves back in Wednesday evening

 

After a couple dry, but windy, days the chance for rain will return Wednesday evening. These showers develop ahead of a cold front and low-pressure system that'll move across the Stateline Wednesday night.

High pressure will sit to the north Tuesday shifting winds to the east throughout much of the afternoon. With cloud cover in place temperatures during the day will only warm to around 50 degrees. Clear skies will continue Tuesday night ahead of incoming cloud cover Wednesday.

The daylight hours Wednesday will stay dry, but rain showers move in Wednesday evening and will last through most of the night. Rainfall totals are not expected to be much with most locations only picking up around a quarter of an inch, perhaps a little higher in some spots.

By Thursday morning most of the accumulating rainfall will be done but lingering moisture and light winds will keep clouds, drizzle, and fog around during the morning. Cloud cover will be slow to clear Thursday, but skies should turn mostly clear Thursday night leading to fog through Friday morning. 

Winds ease Monday as clouds move in overnight

 

Gusty northwest winds have reached close to 35 mph from time-to-time Monday afternoon holding temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s, despite the return of sunshine. The winds will ease through sunset, remaining from the northwest, as high pressure slowly moves in.

The wind direction will shift from the northwest to the northeast, then eventually to the east through the night. As it does, lake effect cloud cover will begin to move onshore across northeast Illinois which will turn skies mostly cloudy. While most of the cloud cover remains east of Rockford through the night, skies for a time could turn mostly cloudy this far west. If so, temperatures would likely remain in the 30s. Temperatures will drop into the 20s where the skies remain clear. Wind chills, however, will fall into the mid-20s around sunrise across the region.

East winds pick up Tuesday but won't be as strong as Monday. Gusts will approach 15-20 mph through the afternoon with temperatures holding right around 50 degrees.