Snow chances return Thursday

 

Roads were wet and a little slick from the rain and snow that occurred Tuesday, but none of the snow really stuck around as temperatures stayed at or above freezing. While Wednesday will feature mostly dry, but cloudy, conditions the chance for snow looks to return for some Thursday afternoon.

A piece of energy currently off the Pacific Northwest coast and tied to low-pressure in the Gulf of Alaksa will move onshore Wednesday. From there, it'll move across the Plains and into the Midwest Thursday morning. At the surface a weak low-pressure system will develop, pushing slightly warmer air into Missouri and Iowa. This will result in a band of snow developing, moving into Illinois Thursday afternoon.

The center of the low stays south of the Stateline but light snow may move in for some across northern Illinois Thursday afternoon and evening. The highest chance for any accumulating snow stays to the south, across central Illinois, but areas north of I-88 and south of Highway 20 may see some snow showers during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 20s will allow whatever falls to stick, which could create some slick conditions through the evening.  

Winter-like temperatures help bring in the New Year

 
The end to 2024 will be a chilly one despite Tuesday's high temperature reaching 38 degrees. While cool, it was still above the average high of 30 for December 31st. And even though we are ending December on a brisk note, it looks like we may wrap up the entire year of 2024 as the second warmest on record. The numbers are still preliminary, and are up through the 30th of December, but even with Tuesday's high of 38 degrees we are likely to hold on to the second warmest spot.

For the rest of tonight skies will remain mostly cloudy following the rain/snow mix we had from earlier in the day. As a few additional disturbances move across the Plains and Midwest tonight there may still be some additional snow flurries or showers overnight. Brisk northwest winds will continue, gusting around 25 mph into the new year. This will help bring overnight lows into the low 20s with wind chills dipping into the low teens.

Mostly cloudy skies can be expected during the day Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 20s. As high pressure briefly moves in Wednesday evening skies will clear enough to bring overnight lows down into the teens. There may be some sunshine to kick off Thursday but increasing cloud cover ahead of a fast-moving system will allow cloud cover to build back in, along with bringing in a few light snow showers during the afternoon and evening.

The big story heading into the new year will be the cold as temperature outlooks favor a higher probability for below average temperatures for the first two weeks of the month. The normal high temperature for the beginning of January is 29 degrees. While we are close to that the first couple of days, a series of colder air masses will move in from the north bringing temperatures down into the low to mid 20s through the weekend and early next week.

This all has to do with the orientation of our jet stream and the movement of air in the mid-latitudes of the atmosphere. Ridging building up the west coast of the United States and Canada will work to dislodge some of the colder air south, spilling it down into the lower 48. As indicated on the temperature outlook maps, you can see the warmth along the West Coast and the cold set to move into much of the eastern seaboard, Ohio and Tennesse Valleys, and Southeast. This also includes us here in the Midwest.

Rain/Snow mix lingers into New Year's Eve

Thanks to an area of low pressure sliding to the south of the Stateline, the last morning commute of 2024 is going to be a wet one. 

Precipitation so far has been in the form of a chilly rain, though we can expect snow to mix in at times as temperatures flirt with the freezing mark. Roads will be wet and may feature a slick spot or two. Worth using extra caution if traveling.  

As we push forward, temperatures won't climb much, remaining in the low to mid 30s. This will be cool enough for flurries and snow showers to remain a possibility into the early to mid afternoon, though in a more brief and scattered fashion. Snow accumulations during the day are unlikely. Temperatures will briefly touch the upper 30s before falling into the low 20s overnight. Those heading out for New Year's Eve shenanigans, dress in layers.

Tranquil, but breezy conditions will likely stick around for New Year’s Day, with clouds giving way to a few peeks of sun. With a northwest breeze in place, we greet 2025 with a cooler, yet seasonable start with highs reaching the upper 20s.

Another round of bitterly cold Arctic air filters in behind a weak disturbance Thursday. This will leave highs below-average beginning Friday, with highs remaining below early-January standards through the weekend and into next week. Overnight lows will fluctuate from the upper single-digits to the lower teens during this stretch.

Wintry mix returns Monday night

 

A wintry mix of rain and snow will return to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin late Monday night, posing *some impacts to the commute Tuesday morning. The Stateline saw plenty of dense fog early Monday morning as temperatures fell into the low 30s. This did create a few slick and icy patches, mostly on elevated and untreated surfaces. The dense fog did dissipate but left skies mostly cloudy in its wake. Temperatures, while still above the average high of 31 degrees, were a bit cooler than the last several days. Areas of fog are possible again tonight.

Radar is beginning to look a bit more active as low pressure moves into Missouri. With plenty of dry air near the surface across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin it'll take some time before we begin to see what is showing up on radar, actually reach the surface. But by late this evening a mix of rain and snow can be expected. For some, the precipitation will begin as light rain but will soon mix in with snow during the night. A transition over to all snow may occur, with some accumulations possible south of the state line, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Winds turn to the northwest Tuesday gusting 25-30 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures will warm into the mid-30s. A few weaker disturbances will move across the Midwest Tuesday afternoon and evening keeping the chance for scattered snow flurries, or light snow showers, through the evening.

As the ball drops to end 2024 and begin 2025 temperatures will be brisk in the mid-20s. If we do see scattered snow flurries/showers through the night, there may be some slick conditions for the drive home from your New Year's celebrations. 

Freezing fog possible Monday morning

Dense fog this morning gave way to a mostly cloudy and mild afternoon. Officially, afternoon highs for most topped out in the low 40s, landing 10°-15° above late-December standards. 

This warmth will stick around overnight as lows drop into the low 30s. Skies remain dry, but mostly cloudy. And in a similar fashion to Sunday morning, the potential for fog, some freezing, will be present during Monday morning's commute.

For the time being, there are no advisories in place, though that may change overnight depending on how fog observations trend. If you plan to travel, use caution and watch out for slick spots.

Temperatures quickly climb above freezing, climbing into the low 40s for one last day. For weather enthusiasts and photographers, be on the lookout for Rime Ice. This is ice that results from freezing fog and is consisted of supercooled droplets that freeze on surfaces that are below freezing.

Fog will be possible into the late morning hours, then giving way to another cloudy afternoon. Clouds stay put into Monday night as a quick-moving disturbance tracks west of the Stateline. At first, this will bring the chance for rain. Though as temperatures cool, we'll see a transition to a rain/snow mix, then to wet snow into Tuesday morning. 

 

It's possible that scattered wet snow showers may stick around into Tuesday afternoon. Behind Tuesday's system, we see our next blast of cold air take place, one that will make for a very cold start to the new year. Afternoon highs Wednesday through Sunday will end up in the 20s, with overnight lows landing in the lower teens.

 BRRRRRRR! 

Dense fog Sunday morning

 

Its already quite the active morning in terms of weather to start the last Sunday of 2024! Multiple weather advisories and statements are in place this morning for the possibility of patchy to widespread fog across the state line.

Currently counties north and west of Winnebago county are all under a Dense Fog Advisory until 12 PM this afternoon while areas including Winnebago as well as south and east are under a Special Weather Statement for isolated dense fog.

Currently the areas with the highest potential of widespread fog this morning are in the grey shaded areas above indicating dense fog advisories. Per the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities many areas within these advisories are expected to experience dense fog this morning with visibility down to less than 1/4 mile. The main hazard with this will be driving on roadways as fog intensity can change quickly causing visibility to decrease quickly as well.

As of 5:30 AM this morning many locations west and north of Rockford are experiencing at least less than a half mile of visibility with some locations reporting no visibility! It'll be crucial to take precautions when heading out on the roadways this morning especially before the sun rises as visibility will be even worse with no light.

If you do have to head out this morning, be prepared for decreased visibility especially with locations under the dense fog advisory. Visibility can change quick so make sure to drive a little slower to allow yourself more time to see objects in front of you as well as using low beam lights to help cut through the fog. Areas should begin to clear up by 11-12 PM this afternoon however as surface temperatures rise. Be on the lookout tomorrow morning as well as the potential for patchy to dense fog sticks around!
 

Rainfall recap and fog continuing into weekend

 Walking outside yesterday it felt like at least some sort of rain was falling all day yesterday. Multiple instances of drizzle and heavier rainfall stuck around the state line yesterday and although it wasn't snow, higher than average precipitation did end up falling yesterday!

With consistent rainfall yesterday, we were able to record nearly a half an inch of precipitation with some lingering rain showers still sticking around the state line as of 5:30 p.m. which is significantly above the daily average for this time of year. The big thing to note though is the lack of snowfall we've received this month. It's hard to believe but we're actually higher in terms of monthly snowfall totals this December than the last! It sure has been a dry December though rain or snow as we're still below average in both departments!

Into tonight, drier air will enter the mid-levels of the atmosphere allowing the upper air to dry out just a little. However, at the surface, we'll remain close to our dewpoint temperature. Combining that with very light winds we will once again see some patchy to dense fog for some areas across the state line. Within the fog too we may see a very isolated shower role through so not all rainfall is done yet!

Towards the morning hours tomorrow, more rain showers begin to slowly push in from our south. As of now chances remain highest to our east as a low-pressure system slides to our southeast keeping the best moisture stunted to our southeast. Either way, surface moisture will make its way into the state line so if there is no rainfall fog will still be possible during the morning hours tomorrow.

If you are heading out tomorrow morning, just be extra careful driving. Visibility can change rapidly so make sure to take it slow in the morning and use low beam head lights to help with visibility. Although dense fog advisories are not in place, it's still important to treat any fog the same as a small decrease in elevation can cause fog to thicken quick! After tomorrow morning though, conditions should clear out for once again another cloudy day!
 

Rain likely Friday, especially later in the day

Widespread dense fog was the talk of the town for holiday travelers on Thursday. 

Little different this morning as the greatest potential for widespread dense fog is west of the Mississippi river where dense fog alerts stretch from the U.S/Canadian border to central Texas. 

The focus today will be the increasing rain chances as well as unseasonably mild temperatures. Rain will be light and scattered Friday morning, becoming more widespread by the afternoon. 

Rain will remain likely into the first half of the night, with chances decreasing into Saturday morning as the occluded low lifts into Wisconsin. When it is all said and done, we could be looking at widespread .25" to .50" totals, with isolated totals up to .75".  

The heaviest rain will fall west and northwest of the Mississippi River. Temperature-wise, afternoon highs are likely to surge into the upper 40s, with a few locales west of Rockford briefly touching the 50° mark. Surface winds will shift to the southwest overnight, resulting in a very slow temperature drop. 

Expect lows Saturday morning to be in the low 40s. How does this compare to late-December standards? Well, normally we're in the upper teens. So yes, Saturday morning will be unseasonably mild. Small improvements filter in for the start of the weekend. Clouds early Saturday should give way to at least a few hours of mixed sunshine later in the day. While a stray sprinkle can’t be ruled out entirely, it’s expected that most, if not all of Saturday will be dry, with temperatures reaching around 50°.

Rain chances return Friday

 

Several low-pressure systems are expected to move across the country over the next few days allowing rain chances to increase across the Stateline Friday afternoon. For the remainder of Thursday evening, it's the dense fog we have to deal with. As of 7pm, visibility remains under half a mile across the board, with the thick fog expected to continue into the night. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect.

Severe weather has occurred, and continues this evening, across east Texas and Louisiana as a tightly wound-up low-pressure system moves into southeast Oklahoma. This low will lose a little of its strength early Friday morning as it moves into Missouri before moving into Iowa Friday evening.

Moisture out ahead of the low, however, will increase giving way to scattered showers by daybreak Friday. The rain will remain scattered through the afternoon before becoming a bit more widespread and steady Friday evening. In all, rainfall totals of half an inch are likely through early Saturday.

Southeast winds will also increase for time during the afternoon, gusting around 20 mph. High temperatures will warm into the upper 40s. Most of the accumulating rain will be done by Midnight, but a few light showers are possible early Saturday. The weekend will feature mostly cloudy skies as a few systems pass by the Stateline. The next chance for precipitation will come late Monday night as another system moves in, this time passing to our south and bringing in a much colder air mass for the new year.  

Dense fog continues Thursday evening

 

The Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 9pm for Green, Rock, and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin and for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, and McHenry counties in northern Illinois. It'll last until 3am Friday for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties.

Little improvement in visibility has occurred this afternoon as most locations are still down to half a mile or less. In fact, as of 4pm several locations are reporting zero-mile visibility. As the sun sets soon, and a slight cooling trend occurs, the fog we currently have in place will continue and may become slightly worse through the late evening. This will make travel very difficult during that time. Please make sure you are traveling with caution as the fog continues.

An increasing chance for rain showers Friday morning should help eliminate some of the fog Friday, but some may linger as we sit just north of a warm front during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain in the 40s during the afternoon with increasing rain chances through Friday evening.

Traveling back? Widespread Dense Fog Thursday Morning

Travelers will have to deal with widespread dense fog if the plan is to make the drive back this morning. 

Our three counties in southern Wisconsin (Green, Rock, and Walworth County) as well as all of our northern Illinois counties have been placed under a DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10AM. 

Visibility until then will be ranging from a quarter mile or less. Travel with extra caution, keep the high-beams off, and increase your following distance from other cars. Along with the fog, there will be the chance for patchy drizzle, which will be present all day as low-hanging clouds stay put. Afternoon highs will peak in the mid-40s. Temperatures fall only a few degrees overnight, with spotty showers arriving by Friday morning.

Rain chances increase from there as an occluded low lifts into central Iowa. Scattered showers early will turn widespread by Friday afternoon. Heaviest seems to pass to the west of the Mississippi River, closer to the occluded surface low. 

Widespread rain continues into midnight, then turning scattered by early Saturday morning. As of right now, most locales could see .25" to .50", with totals closer to 1" west of the Mississippi. 

Cloud cover and warm temperatures stay put over the weekend, leaving highs close to 50° Saturday and then low 40s Sunday. In fact, Saturday's high lands 18° above late December Standards.  

Our weather pattern stays active into next week as forecast models show another storm system takes aim at the Land of Lincoln. The exact track of this system still has to be determined, though both the American (GFS) and the European (EURO) model track it along or south of Interstate 80. This scenario would bring the chance for rain showers at first, with a transition to a wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday. This occurs as colder air wraps in on the backside of the surface low, cooling afternoon highs into the mid 30s for New Year's Eve, then below freezing to start 2025.

Locally dense fog and freezing drizzle Christmas night

 

There was still a little snow on the ground Christmas morning, but it wasn't enough to really enjoy as most the snow from late last week melted away with the warming temperatures. High temperatures Christmas afternoon warmed into the upper 30s, a handful of degrees above the average high of 32 degrees.

Intermittent drizzle remains likely Christmas night as moisture continues to be pulled north. A light southeast breeze, along with thicker cloud cover, will help hold temperatures in the mid-30s. However, right near the state line and in southern Wisconsin temperatures are a little closer to freezing. As a result, pockets of freezing drizzle have been occurring. This may lead to some slick conditions on untreated and elevated surfaces through Thursday morning.

Another concern has been the fog that has started to develop, moving closer to northern Illinois. Locally dense has been developing downstate in central Illinois, lifting north over the last couple of hours. Visibility has begun to fall south and southeast of Rockford with that trend continuing through the night.

Visibility will fall below a mile - or even half a mile - in some locations through the night. And if so, travel would become rather difficult during the morning. If temperatures remain close to, or at freezing, the fog may also contribute to slick conditions. Please travel with caution if you are going to be out.

Throughout the day skies will remain mostly cloudy as temperatures warm into the low 40s. Light rain showers are possible Thursday afternoon and evening, with a steadier rain expected Friday evening. Temperatures through the weekend will warm into the upper 40s before dropping back into the low 30s for the New Year.   

Stateline Christmas forecast: Overcast with increasing rain chances

 For the second year in a row, Rockford will NOT see a White Christmas. Aside from a few lingering patches, most of last week's snow has melted with Rockford reporting 0" of snow depth this afternoon. An official White Christmas requires 1" of snow depth Christmas morning. The last 3 White Christmases in Rockford were in 2016, 2017, and 2022.

Christmas Day will closely reflect how Christmas Eve appeared. Temperatures start near 30°, only rising to the mid-30s through the afternoon. This will come with an increasing chance for drizzle during the afternoon and heading into the evening. Rainfall rates will not be high, but a light shower or two can be expected within patches of drizzle through Thursday evening.

After Thursday evening, rain coverage increases a bit more with higher moisture content. Waves of steady rain showers will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning, then again Friday into Saturday. All told, many in the Stateline could see between 0.25-0.75" of rainfall through the weekend.

The waves of steady rain showers will also be accompanied by much milder air into the weekend. High temperatures will be well into the 40s and near 50 at times, while overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to 40s!

Travel impacts remain low for the Christmas holiday

Aside from a few peeks of sunshine, the Stateline was shrouded in cloud cover. 

Christmas Eve will be no different, though there may be patchy fog in place for morning travelers. Impacts with the fog should be low. The rest of the day will sit under a mostly cloudy to overcast sky, with afternoon highs peaking in the mid 30s.

Cloud cover does stick around for Christmas. With it comes the chance for drizzle or an isolated sprinkle. But Similar to today, travel impacts remain low, with afternoon highs peaking in the mid 30s. Post Christmas, we enter a slightly more active weather pattern. One that will bring multiple chances for light rain as well as a more organized warm up. 

We're not talking washouts as there will be dry time in between upper-level waves. Something to keep an eye on though for travel purposes. Despite these rain chances, afternoon highs Thursday will end up in the low 40s, then close to 50 by Friday.

Using my handy dandy calculator, afternoon highs on Saturday look to end up almost 30-degrees warmer than last Saturday. Quite the change! 

Periodic drizzle and rain showers through Christmas

 It was a dreary but relatively mild day in the Stateline Monday. We saw a few brief rain showers early in the afternoon, while some in Wisconsin saw accumulating snowfall. Our snowfall has begun the melting process, encouraged by afternoon highs in the upper 30s for most. 

The Rockford airport is showing a drop in the snow depth. Fresh snow late last week brought it back to 2", but that has since been dropping through the weekend. We need to maintain 1" of snow depth through Christmas morning for it to officially be a White Christmas. Rockford's last 2 White Christmases were in 2017 and 2022. This Christmas appears unlikely to have much snow on the ground aside from a few soggy snow piles. Temperatures the next few days will reach the mid to upper 30s for highs and only drop near 30° overnight.

Christmas Day will feature continued thick cloud cover, with chances of light rain showers or drizzle, especially during the second half of the day. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 30s once again.

The pattern becomes milder but wetter toward the end of the week as periodic drizzle morphs into waves of steady rain showers starting Thursday evening into Friday. The highest chance for this looks to be between Friday and Sunday. That will be paired with afternoon highs well into the 40s and even near 50° at times through the weekend!

But the pattern is set to flip on its head into the first two weeks of January. Computer models have been suggesting a return to a cold pattern sometime in January. Long-range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center back this up, indicating a 50-60% chance of seeing below average temperatures between the 4th-17th of January. Average highs for that time of year are in the upper 20s to near 30°.

Heads up commuters! Slippery travel for some this morning

Winter Weather Advisory: Cloud cover gathered back up Sunday as the first of multiple inbound disturbances tracked into the central plains. Ahead of this wave, the National Weather Service placed our three counties up in southern Wisconsin (Green, Rock, and Walworth County) under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

This will be in place from 9AM to 6PM today as freezing drizzle mixed with light snow could result in slippery travel during the time of the advisory. At the current moment, there is no Winter Weather Advisory in place for northern Illinois, though I would still keep an eye out for slick spots.

Any freezing drizzle we see will transition to liquid rain as temperatures climb further away from the 32° mark, with some steadier pockets sliding through during the midday hours. Any lingering showers will exit by the evening as drier air moves in. Skies remain mostly cloudy overnight, with low temperatures falling into the upper 20s. 

 

Clouds stay put for Christmas Eve, with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 30s. It's at this point in the forecast period, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and Thursday, where models show multiple waves of energy sliding across the lower 48. 

With temperatures trending upward, the main type of precipitation with be liquid. Chances remain scattered for Christmas Day and the day after, with highs ending up near the 40° mark. Temperatures further climb away from seasonable as we enter the weekend, landing in the upper 40s Friday, then in the upper 40s and low 50s this weekend.