After one of the wettest Aprils on record, May has been the exact opposite. Warm and dry days have been far more common over the last few weeks. Through the first three weeks of May, the Rockford airport has only received 0.28" of measurable rainfall. Not only is that nearly 2.5" below average, but it is also the driest start to the month since 1992. If we do not accrue a full inch of rain by the end of the month, it will go down as a top 3 driest May on record.
It took a while to dig out of the drought conditions that we carried over from last fall. But since all the drought conditions had been removed back in early April, it only took a few weeks of a dry May to bring abnormally dry contour back into the region. Last week, only about 12% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions. This week, that percentage is more than double, above 24%. The moderate and severe drought in Southern Illinois did not see any change from last week to this week.
But will we see any widespread rain anytime soon? The answer is probably not, as we are beginning to see more summer-like patterns in the atmosphere. The upper levels in particular are set to reach into a blocking pattern with dueling lows on either side of the country. That will force a warm and drier air mass across the Central third of the county, limiting overall rainfall potential.
While it is not totally dry, the rainfall we may see will not amount to much. More soaking rains may be possible South and well West of the area, but much of Illinois/Wisconsin will be removed from the highest rainfall potential over the next 5-7 days. Unfortunately, with more warmth on the way, that could lead to more developing drought conditions.
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