Skies have been dry, but mostly cloudy, for much of our Monday afternoon following showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning. Most of the severe weather remained south of the immediate Stateline, with ongoing severe storms over eastern Michigan. Non-severe showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing downstate.
Conditions will remain mostly dry through the rest of the afternoon and early evening as ongoing severe weather continues across the central Plains. There, numerous severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings have been issued.
The expectation is for those storms to remain well to our west through the evening, forming into a line of storms as they move into western and central Iowa between 9pm and 11pm. Severe weather will still be possible west of the Mississippi River through the late evening, but instability does weaken a bit to the east.
An increasing low-level jet, stronger winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere, will likely help support at least some strength of the thunderstorms through the night, but the strongest of the storms may end up just to our south after Midnight. In fact, there are a few of our forecast models that have the northern edge of the line breaking apart by the time it reaches northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
If the northern extent of the line holds together, we should see showers and thunderstorms move in around Midnight, most likely between 1am and 2am. There should be an overall weakening trend but there is a low-end chance for a stronger wind gust or two. This would occur if the line holds together. If it doesn't then the chance for those stronger wind gusts would decrease quite a bit.
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