Written by: First Warn Weather Intern Patrick Murray
Overall, dry weather will continue to dominate the forecast to end the month of May, and the beginning of June doesn't look to tell much of a different story. An Omega block has settled in across the central US, with high pressure in place preventing any storm system from reaching the area.
High pressure is expected to be in place across the Great Lakes region next week. As this area of high pressure slowly pushes off to the east, and we find ourselves on the western edge of a disturbance centered over the northeast, multiple back-door cold fronts will make their way through the Stateline.
The first looks to arrive Thursday afternoon/evening, with weak forcing and upper-level winds in place, rain looks unlikely, though temperatures will cool nicely into the end of the week.
Another cold front approaches the area Saturday night into Sunday, with high pressure in place over the area, limited moisture will be in place, meaning most, if not all of the area, stays dry.
The final of this parade of back-door cold fronts moves in Monday evening. Slightly better dynamics will be in place for this one. Despite this, rain chances still remain very slim. Most of us will stay dry, though a few of us could see an isolated shower and perhaps even a rumble of thunder thanks to some instability aloft.
So, what exactly is a back-door cold front? Typically, cold fronts move in from the west/northwest and are associated with an area of surface low pressure. Back-door cold fronts, on the other hand, come from the east/northeast (or the "back-door" if you will) and are often associated with breezes off of Lake Michigan. Usually, we monitor these back-door fronts for the potential for some shower and thunderstorm activity, but the dynamics in place over the next week, and strong high pressure will likely prevent most of us from seeing any rain, meaning the end of May and beginning of June promise to be drier than what we are accustomed to.
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