Sunday, May 17, 2026

Overnight storms possible Sunday and Monday nights

 Widespread severe weather is not expected, but some pockets of the storms could pack a punch. There are a few windows for storms over the next 36 hours, primarily during the overnight windows. Late tonight, storms will arrive from the West primarily after 2AM on a weakening trend but could bring some gusty winds and hail threats. Monday morning may have some carry-over storms from the nighttime window, with some intensification possible as daytime heating builds in. Most of Monday afternoon should end up dry, with another widespread round of storms arriving late Monday evening into the night.

The nighttime arrival of storms will be unfavorable for widespread severe weather, but storms look to hold together some of their strength as they approach the area well after midnight. Storms could arrive for Northwestern Illinois as early as 1-2AM and may be near the I-39 corridor around 4AM. While widespread severe weather is not expected due to the unfavorable diurnal timing, a few pockets of storms may pose a wind/hail risk. If storms maintain a bow echo shape, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either.

Those morning storms may linger later into mid-day, especially across Central Illinois. As daytime heating builds in, there may be some strengthening of those storms with another threat for damaging winds and hail. Most of the afternoon will end up dry, but an isolated storm may be possible with high levels of instability building in.

The main wave for Monday will again arrive much later in the evening/night. This time around, storms may arrive around 12AM Tuesday for some of the Western Counties, then push through the rest of the area into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. Storms will be in a weakening trend once again, but severe threats may be maintained a bit longer into Tuesday morning compared to Monday mornings risk with a bit stronger low-level winds supporting the line.

Both tonight and tomorrow night will feature scattered storms, with varying trends of severe weather risk. It will largely depend on how much storms are able to maintain their strength as they trek across Iowa into the late evening. Much of the Stateline is under a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk for Sunday night and a Level 2/5 Slight risk for Monday afternoon/night from the Storm Prediction Center outlooks. Be sure to have multiple ways to get warnings the next few nights, including ways to wake you up if a warning were to come in the middle of the night!

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