Severe storm potential returns late Saturday, stretches into Sunday

Portions of the Central U.S saw a bona fide tornado outbreak Friday afternoon as tornadoes were reported from Texas to Nebraska and Iowa.

All in all, a total of 78 tornado reports were obtained by the Storm Prediction Center. 

The National Weather Service in Omaha, NE and Des Moines, IA will be quite busy over the next couple of days rounding up information that will help determine the strength of yesterday's tornadoes. 

As the powerful storm system that was responsible for Friday's outbreak drifts away, another will follow in its footsteps allowing the threat for significant tornadoes to carry on into Saturday.   

Earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded areas from northern Texas to southeast Kansas to a level 4 of 5 moderate risk. Locally, we remain under a level 2 of 5 slight risk for severe weather this afternoon into tonight. 

Ingredients-wise, there will be a good amount of instability and moisture in place. However, the other two ingredients for strong to severe storms are shear and lift which is what we're severely lacking. That, along with having a capping inversion in place will leave storm potential very low during the daylight hours. Again, the "cap" acts as a lid, severely limiting thunderstorm development. 

Temperatures, thanks to a good amount of sunshine and a rather robust southwesterly wind will end up more summer-like, in the upper 70s. From there, the "cap" is shown breaking apart late in the afternoon, bringing the coverage for storms to increase into Saturday evening and Saturday night. These storms would also pose a risk for severe weather, mainly large hail and damaging winds, along with heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the areas that see repeated rounds of storms.

As we've mentioned in previous discussions, Sunday's severe threat will all be dependent on what occurs Saturday night into Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has left the N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk, mainly for hail and winds. Heavy rain will also be a concern. 

This active pattern is shown stretching into the early stages of Monday before a somewhat less active pattern settles in starting Tuesday. As always, continue to monitor the forecast as well as have multiple ways to get watches and warnings!