Thunderstorms will continue this morning as what's left of the MCS moves across northern Illinois. As of right now, no severe weather is anticipated with this batch, however a lot of rain has been falling over the same areas. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of the viewing area until late tonight. Later today, attention will then turn to later this morning and afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes. This, along with the cold front and low level instability, will likely lead to redevelopment and possibily new development of storms.
Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center:FARTHER W...SFC HEATING AND APPROACH OF SD UPR VORT SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING STORMS...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT...ALONG
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM WI INTO ERN IA AND NRN MO...AND ALONG
TRAILING W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NRN IL AND NRN IND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MI MCS. 40-50 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
EML...AND VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST GOOD
LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW LVL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS IN IA/NRN
IL COMPLICATE FORECAST OF THE DOMINANT SVR THREATS THAT WILL BE
POSED. BUT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/HI PW...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST QUASI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES DURING THE EARLIER STAGES OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND. THE STORMS
LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BROKEN BAND/QLCS FROM NRN/ERN MO
ENE INTO IL/IND AND POSSIBLY SRN MI BY EARLY EVE...WITH THE SVR
THREAT CONTINUING BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
We still are under a moderate risk for this afternoon as far as the severe potential. We'll continue to monitor things very closely this morning and try to have another update for you mid to late morning!
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