Severe Threat Tonight

The weather pattern will become a little more active over the next couple of days with the jetstream winds pretty much right over top the Midwest and Great Lakes.  This set up will allow storm systems, not only at the surface but above, to move pretty much directly overhead the next couple of days leading to thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.  While much of this afternoon should remain quiet storms currently in southern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska will begin to move east throughout the day.  Storms will also develop in western Iowa where better instability and moisture reside.  As a result, the Storm Prediction Center will likely issue a moderate risk for severe weather with their late morning update for parts of eastern Nebraka and western Iowa.  As the storms begin to move east through the early evening, the current thinking is that they will develop into a cluster or MCS and move right overhead tonight.  With these types of storms, heavy rainfall and damaging winds would be the primary threat through Wednesday morning.  We'll keep the thunderstorm chance going through Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday with another round of rain for the weekend.  As a result, some computer model guidance is dumping close to 4" of rain by Friday across parts of the viewing area which could potentially lead to flooding problems.  Be sure to keep checking back for the latest updates through the afternoon.