Friday, June 16, 2017

Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow

We are under a Marginal Risk for severe weather, the main reason being that the stronger storms are forming in Iowa and tracking towards our area.  The main threat from these storms has been hail, but luckily these storms have died down as they've gotten closer to our area.  However, we can't rule out the chance for a few more thunderstorms developing and possibly tracking into our area during the evening and the late-night hours. 

Tomorrow will be the bigger event, as we're under an ENHANCED risk for severe weather.  That low pressure system out west, which formed the storms in Iowa today, will track towards our area and strengthen tomorrow.  It will increase our heat and moisture inflow, allowing a chance for a few isolated storms in the morning, but in the afternoon it'll bring a cold front through.  The front will increase wind shear and allow for stronger storms to develop.  The main threats are large hail and strong winds, but our tornado threat is low.  The isolated storm chance in the morning plays a crucial role for the severe weather in the afternoon.  If we see isolated storms in the morning, the rain from them will cool our temperatures, which could impede severe weather development later on.  If no storms form though, our severe weather threat will remain.

As of now it looks like the isolated storms will start to form around noon, which would give plenty of time to cool off and stabilize the atmosphere before the stronger storms get a chance to develop between 3-4pm.  If the severe weather does form, it'll stay with us until around 1am.

The good news is that we clear up for Father's Day!  We'll see temperatures in the upper 70°s with plenty of sunshine, and also hang on to the nice weather for Monday.  We do have a chance for some thunderstorms for Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening, but Thursday will be another nice day with temperatures getting back into the 80°s to go along with the sunshine.  We maintain the 80°s afterwards, with more thunderstorms on Friday.

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