The recent cold spell allowed quite a bit of ice to rapidly develop on some of the local rivers resulting in significant ice coverage over the last week. The warmer temperatures this week, and possible rain chances late in the week, may cause water levels on the rivers to rise - especially Friday and the weekend.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday warmed into the mid and upper 40s, with 40s and likely low 50s expected Wednesday and Thursday. An incoming storm system from the southwest will move across the country into central Illinois late Thursday and Friday. To the south, severe weather will be likely in the southern Plains and Gulf states, while scattered rain showers (perhaps with some rumbles of thunder) occur in parts of the Midwest.
A period of light rain and drizzle will develop late in the day Thursday as low pressure tracks near or just north of St. Louis, MO before moving into central and northern Illinois Friday morning. While it's a little unclear at the moment just how much rain will occur, due to the impacts of moisture transport from storms down south, rainfall totals across at least a portion of northern Illinois could approach a quarter of an inch.
While that may not sound like much, the current frost depth measured Tuesday morning was nearly a foot with little to no surface thaw being reported just yet. It's likely with the milder weather that there will be some thaw through the week, but it won't be deep enough to allow any rain that does occur to soak in which could lead to runoff into the local rivers. Not only would this cause a rise in some of the local river levels it could also cause further breakup and dislodging of river ice, leading flooding concerns due to ice jam flooding.
At this moment the risk is still low but something that will be monitored throughout the week. Those who live along the local rivers should continue to monitor the forecast and be prepared should there be rapid fluctuations in river levels.
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