Rain showers follow unseasonable warmth Thursday

 

For the third day in a row the high temperature warmed into the 40s, with Rockford's high reaching 47 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will climb even further Thursday as a strong southerly wind takes hold, likely bringing the majority of the Stateline into the low 50s. South winds will gust close to 30 mph during the afternoon.

For the remainder of Wednesday evening skies will stay clear as temperatures drop back through the 30s, down into the upper 20s overnight. Winds will remain light as they shift to the south Thursday morning.

Thursday starts with a little bit of a chill, but temperatures will warm quickly during the afternoon. Highs will reach the low 50s, and possibly mid-50s, especially if cloud cover can hold off through most of the afternoon ahead of our next storm system. If clouds move in sooner temperatures would likely fall short of the 50-degree mark. The record high for the 30th of January is 52 degrees set back in 2012. The current forecast high is 53.

The arrival of the cloud cover during the afternoon and evening and will also come with the chance for rain. Rain showers will increase in coverage from south to north, moving into the Stateline Thursday evening. The exact amount of rain is still a little uncertain due to thunderstorms that'll be ongoing in the South. These storms could limit the overall amount of moisture into the region, limiting some of the higher rainfall totals. But it's likely that at least a quarter of an inch, if not close to half an inch, will fall through Friday morning. While this may not seem like a lot the frost depth is still rather deep in the ground and despite the warmer temperatures, little thaw has taken place. This would lead to more rain runoff into some of the local rivers, creeks, and streams rather than the rain soaking into the ground. River levels and the potential for ice jam flooding will be closely monitor from Friday through the weekend as a result.

Temperatures remain mild Thursday night before a slightly cooler air mass settles in Friday morning. This could lead to the potential for some snow to mix in with the rain, or even a short duration of all snow Friday morning. Little to no snow accumulation is expected at this time, but if temperatures trend slightly cooler for Friday morning, then we could see some impacts with the wintry weather. Highs on Friday will warm into the low 40s.