Strong winds persist into Friday evening, cool down to follow

 6PM UPDATE: While it remains windy across the Stateline, gusts have been gradually decreasing. Many gusts are near 40 mph as of 6PM. The wind advisory was allowed to expire for most of NW IL and Southern Wisconsin. Highlighted counties remain under the advisory through 8 or 9PM.

It was a downright windy day across the Stateline Friday, with peak wind gusts of 45-55 mph across the entire area. The strongest of the winds were over the late morning into the early evening, with gusts in excess of 40 mph still as of 5:30PM.

A wind advisory will remain in effect until 6PM for the following counties: Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside in Illinois, along with all of Southern Wisconsin. The rest of Northern Illinois will see the advisory last until 9PM. This is for the continued potential for gusts to reach 45-55 mph. Further West in Iowa, a high wind warning is in effect -- for 60 mph damaging wind potential.

A pair of cold fronts are to thank for much of the wind, along with the strong low-pressure system to the Northeast. The cold front will also bring a big cool down overnight, with temperatures reaching the low 20s and upper teens for some by early Saturday morning. Winds will not be quite as strong during this window, but wind chills could briefly touch the single digits during this time. We may also see a stray rain shower or snow flurry through 4AM, but many if not all will remain dry.

Wind advisory for all of northern Illinois ahead of weekend cooldown

Lots of different weather headlines this week. Most having to do with the unseasonably mild air that's been in place all week long. 

But before we even think about turning the page to a cooler weather pattern, mother nature wants to give northern Illinois one more 50° day. The one caveat, it comes with a rather blustery wind.   

For this, the National Weather Service has placed the entire Stateline under a wind advisory. For Stephenson, Carroll, Whiteside, and Jo-Daviess counties, this advisory will run from 10AM to 6PM. For the rest of the area (including southern Wisconsin, the start time will be at 12PM.

Winds will be out of the southwest at first, gusting up to 35 mph before mid-morning, and will only ramp up from there. By the afternoon, winds will turn to the northwest, increasing to 40-50 mph. 

Ahead of a secondary and strong cold front, afternoon highs will peak in the mid to upper 50s, giving the Stateline its 5th straight 50° day. With that cold front could come a sprinkle or shower. Otherwise, the more important headline with its passage will be the tumble in temperatures that occurs into the weekend. 

Though not as strong as today, winds remain breezy out of the north and northwest Saturday. Despite there being a good deal of sunshine, this cold breeze will limit high temperatures to near the freezing mark. Afternoon wind chills will be left in the teens. Winds then make a quick return to the southwest for Sunday, allowing highs to peak in the upper 30s. 
 
 

February to end on a windy, but extremely mild note

Clearing skies occurred following Thursday evening's round of scattered showers, allowing pockets of dense fog to form. As a precaution, the National Weather Service has extended the Dense Fog Advisory for Boone, DeKalb, and McHenry counties in N. Illinois until 7AM . For Rock and Walworth counties in S. Wisconsin, it will expire at 5AM. 

 

Cloud cover stays put, especially for areas north of interstate 88 as a second disturbance slides into the western Great Lakes. This could spell a mixture of scattered sprinkles and light flurries up until midday, with sprinkle chances lasting into the afternoon. Also in the mix will be a few peeks of sun, though a rather gusty northwesterly wind will create challenges for our warm up. Afternoon highs will be limited to the mid 40s. That, combined with 25-35 mph gusts will leave wind chills in the low 30s.

A stronger storm system sliding in on Friday will put our temperatures on a wild ride into the weekend. Winds Friday morning will be out of the southwest, turning to the northwest by the afternoon following the passage of a strong cold front. 

At times, gusts could be as high as 45 mph, allowing afternoon highs to peak in the mid 50s. This would mark the 4th time this week in which the Rockford Airport has registered a high in the 50s. Colder air funneling in on the cold front's backside will help tumble temperatures for the first weekend of March and meteorological spring. Though both Saturday and Sunday feature a good deal of sun, afternoon highs will be limited to the 30s.

Windy few days lead into chilly weekend

 Our next widespread weather system will bypass us to the North Friday, with a strong wind to accompany it. Wind is caused by the differences between high and low pressure, and with a strong low pressure gliding just North of us that will bring a couple days of strong winds.

Starting with Thursday, Northwest winds could gust upwards of 20-30 mph with temperatures only reaching the mid-40s. Friday will start with a Southerly wind but will flip to the West as the pressure system slides past during the afternoon. Those winds could gust near 30-40 mph. Saturday will bring winds a touch weaker with incoming high pressure, but the gusts could reach 20-25 mph.

The weekend will be a chilly one compared to recent trends with temperatures in the 30s for highs and teens or 20s for lows. We will remain dry with high pressure gliding through, and we may even see more breaks in the clouds Sunday.

Next week could bring a stronger weather system our way for the middle of the week with an expansive low pressure center sliding across the Central U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring widespread precipitation our way, including the potential for some thunder South of the low and snow North of it. Stay tuned as the exact track becomes more refined and the local forecast becomes clearer next week.

 

Light showers follow third 50-degree day in a row, Gusty winds to end the week

For the third straight day in a row the high temperature warmed into the 50s, with Rockford's high reaching 51 degrees. This is the 5th 50-degree day (plus) we've had so far this year, with two 50-degree days recorded in January. On average, our first 50-degree day usually occurs around the 7th of February. Thursday's high won't be quite as warm as a cooler air mass arrives following a cold front Wednesday evening. Still above normal, however, high temperatures will reach the low to mid-40s.

A few scattered rain showers will move in from the northwest with the cold front Wednesday evening. These won't add up to much and should be wrapping up by Midnight. Skies will stay mostly cloudy overnight as temperatures fall into the low 30s.

A brisk northwest wind will follow Thursday afternoon as a trough - or dip in the jet stream - strengthens across the Great Lakes. Embedded within the trough will be several upper-level disturbances that may be able to squeeze out a few scattered showers, especially during the first half of the day. Temperatures will warm into the 40s, roughly about 10 degrees cooler than the last few days, and still above normal. Our normal high this time of year is 37 degrees.

Northwest winds will gust 25-30 mph throughout the afternoon which will make it feel quite a bit cooler than the last few days. Winds may briefly ease Thursday evening before ramping back up Friday ahead of yet another low-pressure system that moves in from Canada. 

This low will quickly slide to our north Friday, ushering in a relatively warmer air mass and strong southerly winds. Wind gusts on Friday could

approach 40 mph, especially during the first half of the day. High temperatures Friday will warm 50s before an even bigger drop in temperatures occurs for the weekend. Highs Saturday will only warm into the low 30s, with temperatures Sunday in the upper 30s. Quite the difference from the spring-like warmth as of late.  

Scattered rain chances to accompany today's mild weather

Wednesday begins with disturbance #2 which as radar shows has brought a round of light rain showers ahead of the morning commute. Showers are widely scattered in nature, meaning not all of our locales will are seeing rain this morning. Those who do encounter rain should expect it to fall lightly and for only 15-30 minutes at a time. At worst, this could make for some wet spots for the morning commute.

 

The best chance for accumulating rain will be before mid-morning, with conditions drying out but staying mostly cloudy for the afternoon. Similar to Monday, any rainfall totals will be under .10". Even though cloud cover stays put, a south/southeasterly breeze should be enough to bring afternoon highs to peak on either side of the 50° mark. 

 

Guidance then show disturbance #3 approaching the region Thursday, which will help keep the cloud cover around. However, with cooler air displaced across the western Great Lakes, precipitation with it could fall in the form of either sprinkles/light rain or flurries/light snow showers. Any impacts to travel will be rather low with whatever precipitation falls. Afternoon highs Thursday will top out in the low 40s, but an organized wind out of the northwest will keep wind chill values in the 30s.
 

 

Light rain moves back in tonight, perhaps with a rumble of thunder or two

 

Skies were quick to clear this morning which allowed temperatures to briefly drop into the upper 20s in Rockford, while the low 30s were found everywhere else. The sun-filled skies were then quick to warm afternoon temperatures back into the low 50s.

The clear skies will last through sunset with cloud cover increasing late tonight. These clouds are ahead of an incoming low-pressure system, currently located over the Upper Midwest, which will move towards the Stateline by early Wednesday. Scattered rain showers have been developing around the low and are expected to move into the region towards Midnight, lasting into early Wednesday morning. Similar to Monday night the rainfall totals won't be much with most locations picking up less than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures Tuesday night will be a little milder as winds turn back to the south through morning.

There may also be just enough instability ahead of the low late tonight that a rogue lightning strike or two occurs, leading to a few rumbles of thunder. The chance for this occurring remains fairly low, less than 20%, but it is possible.

Brief clearing during the mid-day hours will help bring afternoon temperatures close to 50 degrees once again. However, if that clearing doesn't occur then highs will be confined in the 40s. As a cold front moves in behind the departing low Wednesday afternoon winds will turn to the northwest ushering in a cooler air mass Wednesday night and Thursday. A few spotty showers may follow the passage of the front through Wednesday evening.

A brisk northwest wind will remain in place Thursday which will help keep the cloud cover around during the first half of the day. A few widely scattered and spotty showers will occur during the afternoon, possibly mixed in with a few flurries. Highs on Thursday will remain in the low 40s with numbers quickly jumping back into the 50s Friday afternoon. 

Temperatures to stay mild as we approach meteorological spring

The mercury has taken a quick trip north following last week's long-lived Arctic blast. 

A trip that left high temperatures Monday roughly 15° warmer than late-February standards, in the low to mid 50s. Rockford ended up being the warmest of our locales, coming in at 56°. This was not only the warmest day of 2025 to date, but it also marked the third time this year we've observed a 50° day. Take that number and double it and you get the number of 50° days we had at this point last year.

With how this week's weather pattern is shaping up, Rockford could add a few more 50° days. The first of the opportunities arrives today. 

Following last night's frontal passage, models show high pressure settling to our south. This will help get rid of some of the leftover cloud cover, leaving us with a mixed sunshine for the rest of the daylight hours. Despite a northwest wind, afternoon highs should briefly touch the 50°mark.

Cloud cover will increase towards the midnight hour as another quick-moving disturbance approaches. Similar to Monday night's system, this one could bring a scattered round of sprinkles and showers into the first half of Wednesday. Any accumulations will be minor, likely below .10". We could see afternoon highs briefly touch the 50° mark Wednesday, though cloud cover may hinder that potential.

A third disturbance could bring yet another shot for light precipitation our way Thursday. With slightly cooler air in place, this could come in the form of sprinkles or snow flurries. Afternoon highs Thursday will top out in the low 40s, which will end up being the coolest day of the workweek as temperatures make a return to the 50s Friday.

Light showers move in Monday evening

 

The first in a parade of upper-level low pressure systems is forecast to move in Monday evening, with a few light sprinkles/showers already starting to fall over northern Illinois. It'll most likely be rain rather than snow we see with any one of the systems passing through as temperatures throughout the week are expected to remain well above average.

Following our third 50-degree (plus) day in Rockford this year, temperatures will slowly fall through the evening before settling in the low 30s overnight. A wound up upper-level low moving out of the Dakotas Monday evening will slip into the Midwest bringing with it a few showers, and perhaps even a rumble of thunder over Iowa during the late evening hours. Most of the precipitation will be out before sunrise Tuesday. Rain totals won't be much and will remain under a tenth of an inch.

Following a cloudy start early Tuesday drier air moving in for the afternoon will allow skies to clear and temperatures to warm back near 50 degrees. But as quick as the first round of clouds clear, another round will move in Tuesday night. This will be ahead of our next quick moving system that'll pass through the Midwest Wednesday. This low will slide to the north of the Stateline which will bring temperatures back to 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers during the day.

Winds will then turn to the northwest late in the day Wednesday which will bring temperatures down slightly Thursday. A brisk northwest wind will help keep some of the cloud cover with a slight chance for a few sprinkles or snow flurry during the afternoon. Temperatures will warm to 43 degrees - still remaining above average.

The third storm system is then forecast to pass to our north again Friday, pulling temperatures back close to 50 degrees for the afternoon. This one, however, will come with quite a bit of wind during the afternoon. High pressure will then settle in for the weekend.

Northern Illinois could see multiple days near 50° this week

Thanks to a little bit of sunshine, most Stateline locales were able to reach the low 40s Sunday afternoon. This upward swing comes days after a long-lasting Arctic blast and days before we turn the page to meteorological spring. 

This milder stretch of weather will continue into the beginning of the work week, leaving afternoon highs near the 50° mark. Compared to how last week began, this is a significant improvement as high temperatures came in roughly 40° cooler. We were also discussing the likelihood for well-below zero chills.

Today's west-southwesterly breeze will have a lot to do with today's warm up as clouds will be present for most of the day. Not too far behind will be our next round of precipitation as a weak wave disturbance into the western Great Lakes. Nothing too significant as this evening's chance will be in the form of scattered sprinkles and light showers, with the best chance being before midnight. Conditions then dry out into Tuesday as high pressure settles to our south. This will leave us partly cloudy and mild for Tuesday afternoon, with highs landing close to the 50° mark once again.

A secondary chance for rain arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will feature a bit more widespread activity compared to the system sliding through this evening. Again, any rain we see will be light in nature, though a few spots may pick up a couple tenths of an inch of rain where showers are steady. Rain showers may linger into the morning commute hours Wednesday, with a slim chance for a brief round of flurries or light snow mixing in Wednesday evening. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 40s Wednesday afternoon.

Few overnight rain chances with mild stretch this week

 For the first time since February 10th, Rockford reached above freezing, hitting a high of 41° today! That marks the end of a 12 day stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. It's the longest such streak since December of 2022! The record longest streak of sub-freezing days was 46 in Jan-Feb 1978.

Tomorrow will continue the milder stretch of weather with highs possibly reaching the mid-40s areawide. A few locations especially South of I-88 may even reach the 50s if we see more breaks in the clouds.

Our next round of precipitation will arrive Monday evening into Monday night. We could see a few light sprinkles reach the ground as early as 6/7PM, but the better chances will arrive toward 12AM (pictured below). Any rain we do see will be light in nature and quick to exit, with the daytime hours of Tuesday dry and highs reaching the mid-upper 40s again.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will be the next rain chance with showers a bit more widespread than with Monday night's system. Again, any rain we see will be scattered and likely light in nature, but we may see a few spots pick up a couple tenths of an inch of rain where showers are steady. Rain showers may linger into the daytime hours of Wednesday, with a slim chance for a brief round of flurries or snow mixing in Wednesday evening. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s Wednesday afternoon. Many overnight lows this week will be near or just below freezing, but warmer air aloft will keep precipitation chances in the form of rain.

Warmup this week, and temperatures to come

 

After just missing out on temperatures getting above freezing yesterday, today looks to be the first day we eclipse freezing since last Monday (February 10th)! Artic air high pressure has dominated much of the month with the last two weeks providing snowfall and subzero wind chills! Luckily though as we round out the month, temperatures will steadily climb through the week. This all starts today as we may have a shot at 40° depending on sunshine through the afternoon!

This will only be the start of our warmup though, as the last few days of February all will be above average in temperatures eclipsing the 40° mark every day! With consistent northwest flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere centered just to our north we will stay on the "warm" side of the temperature gradient of the jet stream. Temperatures this week will be relatively comfortable combined with a few chances of precipitation as an active "clipper" pattern in the jet stream will be occurring.

 

Right now, the highest chances for precipitation look to be late Monday night into Tuesday morning along with Wednesday morning as well. Within the northwest flow of the upper levels, enhanced areas of forcing or lift will be present known as "clippers". Multiple of these systems will be moving through this week, and as long as there's enough moisture present in these scenarios precipitation can easily form. In the case of any precipitation this week the most likely outcome would be rain showers as temperatures even overnight don't look to fall below freezing.

 

As we move into March temperatures look to remain right around average for this time of year with warmer temperatures just to our west. In this case temperatures would look to remain consistent in the 30's with around normal chances of precipitation as well. Even though it will be March, there is still some signal for winter conditions in the next week to come so don't put the coats away too soon!

Mild stretch next week with few rain chances

 We finally saw temperatures climb into the low 30s for some in the Stateline, marking the first time in a week we've been above 30°. Temperatures this past week were quite chilly, with highs as low as 8° and a few overnight lows below zero! But you can see the staircase climb of numbers through the 20s and now into the 30s for highs.

Tomorrow will get another boost to those temperatures with highs reaching the upper 30s and possibly near 40 for some. The degree of warming will depend heavily on the cloud cover or lack thereof along with the influence of the decreasing snow cover. I would not be shocked to see a few spots touch the low 40s, but I suspect at least a few will remain in the upper 30s, especially near and West of Rockford where snow cover is deepest.

We will remain mild enough even for the next few overnights to cause our predominant precipitation type to be in the form of rain as opposed to snow. We will likely remain dry through Monday evening, but the Monday night window could bring some light rain. Tuesday will be dry again before our next chance for some rain arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. This wave could try to mix in snowflakes toward Wednesday evening as the cooler air arrives late.

Temperatures will be quite mild next week, with multiple highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s. This will allow for much of our snow cover to begin melting away. Likely by the middle of the week, snow depth will be almost nothing across much of the country that was under a few inches of snow just a few days prior!

Moderating trend with more frequent precipitation chances next week

 We saw another boost in temperatures from yesterday to today across the Stateline, with highs reaching the low to mid-20s. We will drop back to the single digits under this clear sky tonight, but even that is better than the near zero lows from the last several nights!

Tomorrow will bring another boost in numbers, with afternoon highs reaching the low 30s this time around for the first time in a week! While we are still below the average high of the mid-30s, it will continue to feel better and better compared to the bitter chill from last week. It will be a bit breezy with Southwest winds approaching 25 mph, so that will add a chill factor, but it should still feel warmer than the day prior.

The warming trend continues into next week, with highs pushing the low/mid 40s for a few days in a row. But that comes with a more active pattern as well, with a series of waves passing through with associated precipitation chances. Monday and Tuesday will likely feature dry daytime hours, but the overnights could be wet with light precipitation moving through. Wednesday will bring a more widespread weather system, including the chance for some rain, possibly switching over to a snow/mix late. 

The milder pattern in the near term will likely take us to the end of the month, but the first week or so of March looks to feature below average temperatures again. Granted, average by that time will be near 40° for highs and low 20s for lows. This forecast from the Climate Prediction Center leans toward below average temperatures in the 40-50% chance.