Increased potential for snowy winter systems next week

 The Stateline hasn't been exactly lucky for snow lovers this season. The Rockford airport has yet to see a single-day snowfall event reach 2", with our highest daily snowfall coming on December 18th with 1.9". Rockford's seasonal total since December 1st is only 6.8". Normally that number is 23.0", so we are about a foot and a half shy of our average mark through February 8th.

But we will see a pattern more favorable for snow chances this week. That doesn't always translate to a higher snow total, but more frequent events mean we may begin to close the snowfall gap between what we've seen and average snowfall. The 3 chances for snow will arrive over the next week, including Monday night-Tuesday, Wednesday into Thursday, and over next weekend.

The first chance arrives Monday night in the form of some light snow showers. With drier air and high pressure filtering in from the North along this system, snowfall totals will likely remain under an inch.

A larger, moisture-laden system will arrive mid-week, and this is the one that currently has my attention. The rain snow line has been depicted South of us consistently for a few days now, placing the Stateline within the region most favorable for accumulating snowfall. How much moisture we see on the Northern edge will determine how much snow we might be able to see, but several inches of snow appear increasingly likely for a region from Missouri through Michigan. Since we are right on that Northern edge, even a small shift South would drastically drop our snow potential here with drier air winning over.

We are still 4 days away from the time this system would arrive, so we will need to take any information about it with a grain of salt. Between 4-5 days out is the window we begin honing in on the most likely scenarios for track and strength of system. Any forecast snow totals will likely not come into clear view until Monday-Tuesday, when we have more data as the storm system gets closer. For now, the main takeaway is there is an increasing probability for a winter system to impact the area mid-week, so stay tuned to the forecast as details emerge and become clearer over the next few days!