An active winter pattern will set up this week, bring us multiple chances for snow over the next several days. The first chance will be Monday night into Tuesday morning, with light snow and flurries possible. Light accumulations will be possible, likely under 0.5" for most across the Stateline.
But a broader system will arrive mid-week, bringing the potential for accumulating snowfall Wednesday. There will be much milder air on the Southern edge of this system, producing an area of mixed precipitation and rain South. We will be solidly cold enough for snow, but drier air to the North may limit how much snow we see.
The potential for 3 inches of snow or more has been increasing with more confidence as the system approaches. If Rockford ends up seeing 3" of snow, that would be the largest snowfall event of the season thus far. There have been some models suggesting as much as 6" of snow, but I don't see enough confidence on those higher totals just yet.
There are many things to consider when forecasting for a winter weather system, including limitations to snow totals. In our case, we have a few fail safes to watch out for that could limit snowfall. The exact storm track will determine where the highest snow totals end up, and a shift South could shift the snow South as well. Drier air to the North may also limit the moisture we see locally, while a weaker system could limit totals across the board for everyone. So, while the potential for 3" of snow is getting higher, it is far from a slam dunk! Stay tuned to the forecast!
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