The severe thunderstorm watch that had been issued for southern Wisconsin and most of northern Illinois earlier Monday evening has been canceled. However, isolated thunderstorms will continue throughout the late evening. The greatest threats with any of these storms will be heavy rainfall and hail. A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for southeast DeKalb County until 3:45am.
Our focus continues to remain on the storms that are developing in northern Wisconsin late Monday night, and their progress to the east and southeast. The latest set of computer guidance has these storms strengthening into a storm complex but moving more east than southeast overnight.
If this occurs the track of the storms would move more into central and east-central Wisconsin, from Green Bay to Milwaukee before moving out over Lake Michigan early Tuesday. This would place the strongest and most damaging wind threat to the north.
Storms may then develop to the west and southwest over northern Illinois around sunrise, still holding on to an isolated wind threat through early morning.
The line of storms would likely move out between 8am and 10am with heat and humidity quick to build in behind. As warm air continues to spread east across the area dew point temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s. This would cause humidity values to increase quite a bit, potentially pushing the heat index close to 100 degrees during the afternoon.
A cold front coming in from the north during the evening would then become the focus for additional thunderstorms after 6pm. The exact placement of those storms would depend on where any outflow boundaries from the early morning storms set up, and where the atmosphere has been able to recharge. This could end up being focused more across northwest Illinois and Iowa, quickly shifting south through west-central Illinois and northern Missouri after sunset.
We'll continue to monitor the storms through the night and into Tuesday morning. Be sure to check back with the forecast during the morning.
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