Timing of severe thunderstorms tomorrow early morning

 Overnight tonight into the early morning hours of tomorrow will be a time to be weather ready and pay attention to alerts as an overnight severe thunderstorm threat looks to impact the region.

Currently the storm prediction center has both an enhanced and slight risk out for the entire region. Within these risks damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat through the early morning however hail and a isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Thunderstorm development is currently ongoing in Minnesota and Wisconsin, these thunderstorms will continue to grow and redevelop throughout the evening and will push southeastward through the night. These thunderstorms will be following the axis of instability as this instability will be the fuel for the thunderstorms to persist overnight. By 10 p.m. a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop and is forecasted to move southeast into the state line region.

Through the early morning hours tomorrow a large complex known as an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) is expected to develop and intensify in Wisconsin. The track of these thunderstorms will be determined by the instability that is in place and the "swath" of instability these storms will follow. In the case of an instability axis positioned as shown, this would be an outcome where severe thunderstorms would impact the region.

Timing currently is the hardest part of the forecast as it all depends on how storms progress through Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, with current trends the line of thunderstorms is forecasted to reach the region from 3-5 a.m. bringing severe chances with it. With an instability axis positioned further south further development will be expected creating a flooding risk as well.

By the time the sun is up from 6-7 p.m. thunderstorms are forecasted to be out of the region. Depending on how these storms evolve through the morning hours tomorrow this will then determine the next round of storms that may develop into tomorrow afternoon.

However, the focus is on the early morning hours of Tuesday with the enhanced (level 3/5) risk. Although this is overnight, it will be crucial to have severe weather safety plans in place and make sure your phone volume is on so warnings can be properly heard through the night.