After Monday's cold front, we will see a brief drop in humidity and temperatures early this week. Tuesday and Wednesday will both feature plenty of sunshine with much more comfortable humidity levels. Dew points will only be in the low 60s, with overnight lows also reaching comfortable levels in the 60s.
The pattern will flip again late into the week as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds in overhead. This will allow for a return of heat, humidity, and storm chances--particularly over the weekend as the ridge breaks down.
As of now, chances for rain and storms on the 4th look isolated, with better coverage arriving overnight. But with the ridge overhead, it will be a hot and humid day with highs likely in the low 90s and dew points pushing 70° or more.
Before June started, Rockford only observed one 90° day and that was on May 15th.
Since then, Rockford has added 8 more to the tally and that includes Sunday's high of 93 degrees.There won't be as many 90° day this week, though the high heat and humidity could make a return by the time Independence Day rolls around.
A cold front sweeping through today will swap flow to the northwest by the afternoon. Despite that, there will be enough time spent with a southwesterly wind to allow temps will climb into the mid 80s. Heat index values won't be as high, though values will be flirting with the 90° mark.
With the cold front as well could
be an isolated storm or two. However, it seems that the chance or
coverage for rain and thunderstorms as dropped and has shifted a bit
more south of the Stateline.
The
Storm Prediction Center has lowered the threat for severe storms for
those in southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois, leaving areas south
of Rockford and Savanna under a level 1 Marginal Risk.
Similar
to Sunday, any thunderstorm that does become severe will be capable of
damaging winds up to 60 mph and flash flooding. We saw a good example of that in Janesville yesterday which led to flooded roadways. Clouds should linger into sunset, then clearing shortly. This will
leave us with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the low 60s by Tuesday morning.
If there was a day this week to take advantage of the weather, it's Tuesday. Why? There will be lots of sun,
comfortable humidity, and seasonable temperatures. High pressure will
keep the area dry and sun-filled from start to finish, with highs
peaking right around the 84° mark. From there, expect highs in the upper 80s for Wednesday and Thursday, with our next 90° day scheduled for the Independence Day.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Wisconsin until 9PM this evening. Green County is included in this watch.
Thunderstorms stretch from near La Crosse to Green Bay as of 2PM, and they will slowly sag Southeast along a frontal boundary this evening, likely not reaching far SW Wisconsin until after 6-7PM. By then they will begin to lose strength with the loss of daytime heating.
Strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, with the highest potential for severe storms centered Northwest of the Stateline. Storms that arrive after sunset will still be capable of gusty winds and heavy rain but are not likely severe.
Yesterday was warm, though the humidity remained at somewhat comfortable levels. Today will be a little different as a more organized southwesterly wind will result in a brief uptick in heat and humidity levels. If you remember how it felt on Thursday, that's how warm and humid it will be today.
Afternoon highs will reach the low 90s. This will mark the 9th time this year and the 7th time since June 15th Rockford has observed a high at or above 90°. Dew points temperatures will rise back in the upper 60s and low 70s. This will cause the heat index to rise near 95-100° at times. Remember, you can
beat the dangerous heat by wearing light colored clothing, taking
frequent breaks in the shade and air conditioning, and of course
remaining hydrated.
Of course, this heat and humidity comes with the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms, some of which may end up strong to severe. In their latest round of outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center has left the region in its entirety under a level 1 Marginal Risk. Only a sliver of Jo-Daviess County is involved in the level 2 Slight Risk that contains a majority of the areas to our north and west. Any storms we see locally will be very isolated in
nature but will be capable of producing heavy downpours as well as damaging winds up to 60 mph.
Isolated thunderstorm chances continue on and off Sunday night, but we
will see slightly higher coverage as a cold front arrives Monday. Similar
to Sunday's storm chance, these will also be capable of producing damaging winds and heavy rain. On a more positive note, this cold front will briefly put an end to the rise in temperatures from the weekend. Afternoon highs to kick off next week start in the low 80s, then slowly go back toward the 90° mark by the weekend.
We will stay dry and mild overnight as storms churn to the Northwest. These storms may produce an outflow boundary into early Sunday morning, which may be the focal point for a few isolated thunderstorms by the afternoon. Outside of one of these boundaries, lifting mechanisms are limited, so many in the Stateline may end up dry.
The highest coverage of storms will likely remain primarily West and North of the Stateline, where the higher risk for strong to severe storms is placed. Any storms we see locally will be very isolated in nature but will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds possibly near severe limits (60 mph).
Outside of the limited threat for a few thunderstorms, Sunday will be a hot and humid day in the Stateline. Dew points will rise back to the 70s with temperatures reaching the low 90s. This will cause the heat index to rise near 95-100° at times throughout much of the day. Be sure to stay hydrated if you plan to be outdoors for extended periods of time!
Isolated thunderstorm chances continue on and off Sunday night, but we will see slightly higher coverage of those heading into Monday. Similar to Sunday's storm chance, outflow boundaries from the previous day may play a role in coverage and placement of storms, but the highest chances arrive toward the afternoon along a cold front. This will help to clear things out by Monday evening, with a few cooler overnights on tap next week.
With a relatively comfortable day passing yesterday, we got a bit of relief from the 90-degree heat that has stuck around for nearly the past week. Since last Friday, 5 of the last 7 days have been at 90 degrees or above! We won't hit 90 degrees today however heading into tomorrow we look to see those temperatures return. Before that though, cooler conditions this morning has brought fog to some locations.
Temperatures this morning are in the low 60's with dewpoint temperatures not far behind! Because of this, isolated dense fog will be possible this morning as seen out at our Rochelle Sky track camera around 5:10 a.m. We'll see a warm front lift through the region this morning though clearing fog cover as temperatures warm!
As mentioned above, temperatures will increase through the weekend as today we'll remain pleasant once the fog clears with temperatures getting into the upper 80's! Tomorrow temperatures continue to warm, and with a weak disturbance moving in late a few scattered showers/thunderstorms may be possible into the evening and overnight hours.
High pressure today will help keep things calm with plenty of sunshine; while tomorrow depending on the timing of the disturbance we could see a few showers into the evening with higher chances coming along the cold front into the evening.
With warmer temperatures tomorrow, higher humidity will also be in place which will help instability develop as well into the evening. Although we won't see the strongest shear to "organize" thunderstorms, if any develop tomorrow a few damaging wind gusts may be possible along with heavy downpours at times. This threat looks to remain scattered through and higher chances for severe storms remain to our North and West.
It was a much more comfortable day in the Stateline Friday compared to the last several hot and humid days from the past week. Five of the last six days have featured highs at least 90° in Rockford. But Friday only reached 85°, the coolest daytime high since last Friday.
Late into the evening, temperatures will continue to drop following this morning's cold front. It will be a refreshing night, with overnight lows in the low 60s and even pushing upper 50s in some spots. With high pressure overhead, we will clear out overnight. We may see some patches of fog, especially in areas that saw heavy rain over the last few days.
Unfortunately, the relief from the heat and humidity is short-lived, as we see a return this weekend. Dew points will rise back near and above 70° through Sunday, pushing heat indices into the 90s Saturday and near 100° Sunday. Air temperature will reach the upper 80s Saturday and low 90s Sunday.
Much of the weekend will be dry, but there is a slim chance for stray thunderstorm or two across Southern Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and evening. Locally better chance for storms will arrive Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lasting into Monday. Storm coverage will remain scattered, with the strongest storms possibly producing damaging winds and heavy rain.
It was another hot, steamy day Thursday as afternoon highs landed in the low 90s. But at times, it felt like the upper 90s with the heat index.
Diving into some numbers, yesterday was our 2nd straight day with highs in the 90s, our 8th 90° day of the year, and our 6th 90° day since June 15th. So yes, it's been very hot as of recent.
Thankfully, we see a cooler and slightly less humid end to the work week following the cold front that came through overnight. Expect afternoon highs in the low 80s which is on par for late June. The day will start off with mostly cloudy to overcast skies, though we should see more sun by the afternoon. Personally, I'm looking forward to tonight as for the first time in what feels like forever, temperatures won't be limited to the 70s. In fact, we should wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 60s Saturday!
Enjoy this brief break because the heat and humidity will make a quick return for the weekend. Winds ahead of our next cold front will become oriented out of the southwest, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 80s Saturday, then low 90s Sunday. Of the two days, Sunday will be the least enjoyable as heat indices will end up in the 95°-100° range.
Once this cold front sweeps through, expect highs to end up in the low 80s and overnight lows to end up in the low to mid 60s for early next week. Of course, we will see a chance for scattered showers and storms with said cold front, especially late Sunday evening into the early stages of Monday.
After Thursday night's cold front and scattered storms, we will see quite a bit cooler conditions for Friday. We may see a lingering shower before 12PM, but most of the day will remain dry. The cold front from the night before will work to sweep away some of the humidity, keeping us a bit more comfortable through the afternoon. It will still feel close to 90° with the heat index factored in, but that is around 10° difference from Thursday's heat indices.
The weekend will see a return of some of that humidity, with heat indices pushing 95° on Saturday and 100° on Sunday. Temperatures will return to the upper 80s and low 90s this weekend.
After Thursday night's storm chance, we will see things dry out a bit heading into the weekend. While our rain chances Friday night into Saturday are not zero, coverage of any showers and storms will be very limited. Better chances will return Sunday into Monday. After Monday, humidity will really drop as high pressure takes over Tuesday and Wednesday. We may even see overnight lows reach the low/mid 60s, much closer to average for this time of year.
Keep those A/C units running! Thursday is going to be just as summer-like as Wednesday, just a smidge higher with heat index values. On the plus side, only one of our counties has been placed under a Heat Advisory and that is Whiteside County. This will run from 12PM-7PM as heat index values could wind up above 100°. Locally, values will be a touch below that in the 95°-100° range. As we've said on multiple occasions this week, continue to practice heat safety. Staying hydrated, taking breaks, etc.
Much of the daytime hours will be dry, with lots of sunshine and a robust southwesterly wind pushing highs back into the low 90s. At times this afternoon, winds could push 25 to 30 mph.
If you are planning to attend Dinner on the Dock this evening at the Prairie Street Brewhouse, keep an eye on the radar as an isolated storm will be possible. In fact, thunderstorm chances remain very limited until the late evening and early overnight hours.
That's when we see a batch of showers and storms along a cold front surge in from the west. The severe risk is very similar to yesterday, with the entire region being under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk. Only the northwest corner of Green County has been placed under a level 2 Slight Risk. Damaging winds and heavy rain will be the primary concerns, followed by a tornado or two, especially north of the Illinois/Wisconsin border along the warm front.
Once the cold front is to our east, we dry out and cool down for the end of the work week. Afternoon highs will end up in the low 80s Friday which is on par with what we typically see in late-June. Unfortunately, this cooldown is very brief as southwest flow makes a quick return by the weekend. Expect highs to be back in the upper 80s Saturday, then peak in the low 90s Sunday afternoon. Heat indices will be at their highest Sunday, landing in the 95 to 100 range.
Thursday will be another hot and breezy day, with peak wind gusts pushing 25-30 mph from the Southwest. Temperatures will rise into the low 90s for afternoon highs, while much of the daytime hours will be dry (but hot and humid). We cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm before 6PM, but they would be very limited in coverage until later.
A cold front that will surge South after 7PM, bringing a line of showers and storms. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main threat. Once again, the entire Stateline is under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk from the Storm Prediction Center. Storms will slide out of the area after midnight.
7:30PM: A new severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for parts of Rock and Walworth Counties in Southern Wisconsin until 8PM. This storm is capable of producing 60 mph winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. The storm is moving Northeast at 30 mph, just crossing the county line.
7:05PM: A new severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Rock County, Wisconsin until 7:45PM. This storm is now capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. Storm is moving Northeast at 25-30 mph.
6:45PM: The isolated storm just North of Rockford may be capable of producing gusty winds near 40-50 mph along with heavy rain and lightning. The storm is moving Northeast at around 30 mph, heading toward Beloit.
6:25PM: This cell just West of Rockford is not severe but may be producing gusty winds and heavy rain near and North of the town of Winnebago. Storm is moving Northeast at around 30 mph. At that trajectory, this storm will likely miss downtown Rockford but could impact areas North.
5:55PM: A new severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for portions of Carroll and Stephenson Counties until 7PM. This storm is capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts as it moves to the Northeast at 30 mph. (6:40PM: This warning was cancelled as the storm has weakened significantly)
5:25PM: A new severe thunderstorm warning has been extended into more of Carroll County until 6:15PM. This storm is still capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts as it moves Northeast at 25 mph.
5:05PM: This cluster of storms in far Eastern Iowa and NW Illinois is capable of producing 50-60 mph wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Storms are moving to the Northeast at 35 mph. A severe thunderstorm warning runs until 5:30PM for portions of Carroll and Whiteside Counties.
Scattered thunderstorms are developing across Northern Illinois this evening. Strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts near 50-60 mph. Storm motion is generally to the Northeast at 25-35 mph.
A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Southwestern Whiteside County. A severe storm near Davenport is capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts as it moves to the Northeast at 30 mph. Warning runs until 5PM. (4:45PM UPDATE: This warning has been cancelled)
Scattered storms will remain possible for the rest of this evening, with strongest storms producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Highest coverage across the Stateline will be primarily South of Rockford. Coverage will begin to decrease near 8PM as the sun begins to set.
Another wave of steady rain showers and thunderstorms may be possible toward midnight. These would largely bring a risk for heavy rainfall, with only a few embedded rumbles of thunder.
Highest chance for severe weather this evening is across Iowa and Southern Minnesota, but the Stateline remains under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk from the Storm Prediction Center, primarily for a damaging wind risk. The hail and tornado threats are much lower locally.
