Local severe storms still on the table Tuesday and Wednesday

As expected, there are a few details that have changed about our upcoming severe chances. 

Starting with today, thunderstorm chances in nature will be scattered and could arrive as early as the early-afternoon hours. However, it's between the hours of 5PM-10PM where models show a cluster of storms shifting through the Stateline. 

 

Overall, the severe threat is low, though the entirety of the Stateline remains under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk, mainly for damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1" (quarter-size) in diameter. Heavy rain will also be a concern later today.

 

 

Once severe potential wanes this evening, our focus will then turn to a slightly more organized storm system over the central plains. 

One that forecast models continue to have subtle disagreements on in terms of how quick is it to move through the western Great Lakes. A few models show the storm's center of circulation pushing through around midday whereas others bring it in a little bit later towards the early afternoon.

Why is this important? Well, the speed of the system will be a huge factor into telling whether or not we're in for severe weather Wednesday afternoon. 

IF the storm system pushes through at a slower pace, that would allow instability to build up, hence heightening the threat for severe weather locally. Vise versa if the storm system were to push through early enough to where it would it difficult for instability to gather up. This would lower our chance for strong to severe storms, pushing the more organized threat to the east of the Stateline. Outlook-wise, no changes as the Storm Prediction Center has left the western half under a level 1 Marginal Risk, leaving the other half under a level 2 slight risk. 

IF the storm is slower on approach, all hazards, including a few tornadoes, will be on the table Wednesday afternoon. Again, this is why it is very important to stay up to date with the forecast as small changes will likely occur. Temperatures will be warmest today, with afternoon highs landing short of the 90 mark, then cooling into the low 80s for Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.