Monday, June 16, 2025

Summer-like pattern to bring multiple opportunities for strong storms

I hope all the dad's had a wonderful Father's Day weekend. It was a nice one weather-wise with highs landing in the low to mid 80s. 

Looking at the week ahead, our weather pattern turns a bit more active and summer-like as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the central U.S. 

This means a little more work for our A/C units as well as keeping an eye on storm chances, mainly during the early portions of the work week. Uncertainties remain, including the influence the previous round will have on the evolution of the next  As of this morning, the highest coverage for any storms will likely be between Tuesday and Wednesday. In this window will be the potential for a few strong storms as well as heavy rain and flash flooding.

The highest threat for strong to severe storms today resides up in central and southern Minnesota. Aside from a stray shower or thunderstorm, most of the day will remain dry with highs in the upper 80s. 

It's not out of the question that a thunderstorm or two may track into the area overnight. If so, the Storm Prediction Center has a level 1 Marginal Risk extending into northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin, mainly for gusty winds. 

For Tuesday, the coverage for storm chances goes up, especially the second half of Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has another Marginal Risk in place. This time, for the entire region as forecast models show a cluster of storms developing to our west late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Now, there is a slight disagreement on timing. However, potential for 60 mph wind gusts and possibly hail up to 1" in diameter exists from the late-afternoon hours into the few first hours of Wednesday morning.

Stay tuned for updates. Now, this is where things get a bit tricky as the longevity of storms Tuesday night may influence storm potential Wednesday. This may limit recovery time, pushing the higher severe threat east of Rockford by the time we get into Wednesday afternoon. That is why for now, the Storm Prediction Center has areas west of I-39 under a level 1 Marginal Risk, leaving areas south and east of Rockford under a level 2 Slight Risk. As previously mentioned, stay tuned for further updates. Afternoon highs Tuesday will end up closer to the 90-degree mark, dropping towards the 80-degree mark for Wednesday.

No comments:

Post a Comment