Soaking rain, few strong storms on the table this evening

It hasn't been all that exciting in the rainfall department this year considering 71 days of 2025 have come in with .25" or less. 

In fact, you would have to go back to July 22nd of last year, a mere 316 days ago, to find Rockford's last rainfall total above the 1.5" mark. Well, depending on how this evening and tonight goes, a locale or two may end up seeing that much rainfall. 

With the exception of a midday shower or storm, most of our Tuesday will be dry as we await for the cold front's arrival. That doesn't arrive until this evening, closer to sunset. Ahead of this boundary, winds remain warm and gusty out of the southwest, pushing high temperatures back into the mid 80s to possibly upper 80s. Once this boundary slides in, it will have a batch of showers and storms with it, some of which may pack a punch.

In their latest round of outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center downgraded the portion of the Stateline that was under a level 2 Slight Risk. Now, all of N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin is under a level 1 Marginal Risk, mainly for strong winds, large hail, and even though spin in the atmosphere isn't all that impressive, a tornado is possible. Showers and a few non-severe storms will remain on the table into the first half of Wednesday. As the cold front pulls away, conditions will gradually dry out by Wednesday afternoon with highs landing in the low 70s. 

In the end, most of the region should pick up .5" to as much as 1.5". For the remaining days of the work week, rain chances remain slim for Thursday but may get a slight boost on Friday depending on how far south a storm system tracks. For the time being, I left a chance for showers with afternoon highs fluctuating between the low 70s and the upper 70s.