Thursday, June 12, 2025

Slim chances for rain through the weekend, humidity builds in next week

 In weather, we like to throw around words like "scattered, isolated, and widespread" as ways to describe rain chances. This is a good graph to visualize what those words mean. Isolated showers have been the name of the game the last couple days, with less than 20% of people seeing any rain at all. That means more than 80% of the area stayed completely dry.

We will again see isolated or widely scattered showers and a few storms tomorrow. With a little more moisture than Thursday, I think Friday will bring a slightly better coverage of these showers, around 20-30%. Timing would be from around 12PM-7PM, with the best chances during the early afternoon.

Most of Father's Day Weekend should be a dry one, favorable for outdoor activities. We will likely feel a little bit of humidity along with temperatures in the low 80s. As for rain chances, Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon should be dry under the influence of high pressure. There is a slim chance for a few showers early Saturday with the outgoing weather system from Friday, then again late Sunday with our next system moving in.

All through the weekend, our rain totals will be very hit-or-miss. And unfortunately, many spots in the Stateline could possibly stay completely dry. Highest coverage of rain looks to track well to our South along the track of the low pressure system in Central Illinois. Locally, we may see a spotty shower or two bring up to 1/4" of rain at a time, but there are many spots that will remain dry.

Looking beyond the weekend, a broad ridge will develop aloft. This will tug more moisture and warmth our way for much of the week, as dew points reach near or above 70°. This will be paired with temperatures into the mid-80s each day, prompting daytime shower and storm chances as typically seen in these humid summertime patterns. Exact timing of those rounds will be hard to nail down until after the weekend. Our next broad weather system will arrive around Wednesday next week, so that could be a window to watch for any stronger storms.

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