The ridge of high pressure that had been bringing record heat to some part of the Western half of the country will at least begin to flatten a little bit heading into the weekend. This will bring an increase in our heat and storm potential Saturday through Tuesday. Often referred to as the "ring of fire" pattern, we will be right on edge of this ridge, with an active WNW flow aloft, enhancing potential storm complexes while the strong flow is overhead.
Our first main chance for storms is Saturday afternoon and evening, some of which toward the second half of the day may even trend toward strong/severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the Stateline under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk, while a Level 2/5 Slight risk exists well to the Northwest closer to initiation of the storms. Highest coverage of storms looks to be later in the day and overnight Saturday.
Another threat exists in a similar region for Sunday afternoon and evening with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting the Stateline again for the severe threat. Much of the afternoon may even be dry is capping remains in place. However, we might see storms fire off in extreme instability with the increased heat and humidity.
A very similar risk exists again for Monday as well. The Northern edge of this threat is trimmed a bit South compared to Sunday's threat. Exactly the same as Sunday, we may see some capping keep us dry in a short window during the middle of the day, but increased coverage of storms are possible as capping weakens later in the afternoon and evening.
Another threat for storms exists Tuesday along a weaker cold front, but that will clear most the moisture and therefore storm fuel to the South, placing much of the Stateline only under a smaller isolated threat. This will also start the cooling trend for the middle of the week, with high temperatures returning to the low and mid-80s through the end of the week.
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