After another warm and relatively comfortable day in the Stateline Friday, it will be a fairly mild night tonight. Temperatures will only fall back into the mid-60s under mostly clear skies early. But some rain showers and an isolated storm may move in closer to sunrise tomorrow.
This will be the first of a few potential rounds of storms over the next few days. The storms are all developing along what is called an instability axis. Greatest instability, or storm energy, will be centered across the upper Midwest region, with enhanced upper-level flow nearby as well. This will be the necessary forcing to develop multiple waves of storms in a NW to SE motion across the region.
While there are many small-scale ingredients that play into exactly where and when these types of storms may fire off, guidance has continued to suggest the first round may initiate over Minnesota Saturday morning and afternoon before dropping South into our area by the late evening. If these storms were to maintain their strength, they could produce very heavy rainfall and damaging winds. More storm potentials exist Sunday and Monday in similar fashion, with storms forming North and West of the Stateline before dropping South. The timing of these second and third possible rounds will heavily depend on how the first round evolves, as any residual outflow boundaries will play a big role in where and when additional activity will develop.
With the very high instability, potential for strong storms is quite high even though confidence of placement and timing is lower. Nonetheless, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Stateline for the severe weather potential each of the next 3 days. Saturday and Sunday we are under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk, while Monday brings a 15% equivalent Level 2/5 Slight risk. Regardless of how storms evolve, it does appear likely there will be multiple rounds of storms from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region between Saturday and Monday, some of which may be strong to severe. Visit https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ for all the latest outlooks.
A lot of these storms will be fueled by humidity. Dew points will be surging with a very moist airmass, aided by near peak evapotranspiration with summer crops in full swing. Dew point temperatures may even reach the mid-70s Sunday and Monday. This paired with temperatures in the 90s would place heat indices into the triple digits, and near heat advisory criteria (105°F) at times. Be sure to stay hydrated and cool through that time frame, in addition to weather aware with the storm potential!
Temperatures will be on the upswing over the next couple days, along with the rise in heat and humidity. This will fuel the multiple rounds of storms that may be possible between now and Tuesday before a cold front will slide through, bringing an end to the oppressive heat and storm threats by Wednesday. Canadian high pressure takes over by mid-week, drying out humidity and allowing for seasonably cool conditions to take hold into the following weekend.
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