7:10pm Update: New Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued for Jo Daviess County until 8pm, and for Carroll & north-central Whiteside counties until 7:45pm. Both storms are capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts.
6:00pm Update: A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin until 1am Monday.
The active weather is set to continue once again Sunday evening as another round of strong to severe storms remain possible across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Following the non-severe storms that moved through Sunday morning, skies have been able to clear with temperatures warming back into the mid and upper 80s. Dew point temperatures have warmed into the mid and upper 70s, close to 80 degrees, which have pushed heat index values into the mid and upper 90s.
There were a few showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed mid to late morning, moving across the region through the afternoon. Those have now moved out closer to Chicago and out over Lake Michigan.
Our focus turns back to the west where an upper-level disturbance is currently located over Iowa, leftover from a complex of thunderstorms over the Plains Saturday night. This disturbance will be moving into an environment that has built up quite a bit of instability over the last few hours. As a result, we are likely to see some sort of watch to be issued within the next hour. The entire area remains within a 'slight risk' for severe storms.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northwest Illinois and northeast Iowa within the next couple of hours and will move east/southeast with the upper-level flow. The storms will be moving a bit faster than those that came through Saturday night but given the amount of rain that occurred across far northern Illinois the threat for additional flash flooding remains. Because of that, a Flood Watch has been issued for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, and McHenry counties through late tonight.
Along with the flooding risk, strong to severe storms are likely with damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary concerns, followed by an isolated tornado risk within any individual storm cells that may form. The expectation is for those individual storm cells to then form into another cluster, moving across the rest of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin through sunset.
The storm threat will come to an end around Midnight, with drier skies expected through Monday morning. Unfortunately, another threat for severe weather will occur Monday afternoon and evening with both damaging winds, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes all possible for all of northern Illinois and most of southern Wisconsin.
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