After a cooler and mostly dry weekend, our next storm system will be taking shape early next week. It all starts with the pattern aloft in the atmosphere, where strong Southwesterly winds will drive a warm and moist air mass our direction Sunday night into Monday. These winds will also provide the driving force behind the storm system that will arrive Monday.
High temperatures Monday look to reach into the low 80s with the aid of a strong Southerly wind near the surface as well. The surface low pressure will lift from the plains up to the Northern Great Lakes over the course of Monday-Tuesday, eventually drawing a strong cold front behind it. Ahead of that front, we will see the warm and moist air allow for a lot of storm energy to build up in the region, producing the potential for some strong or severe storms.
While this is still more than a few days out, the Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting the severe risk potential for Monday and Tuesday. The highest confidence for any severe weather Monday is primarily from Northern Missouri into Southern Minnesota, encompassing most of Iowa. Slightly lower, but still significant, risk for severe weather stretches through the Stateline as well. The local timing of any severe weather would be Monday afternoon/evening locally near Rockford.
By Tuesday, the strong cold front will have cleared to the South and East, pushing most of the severe risk out of our area. We may still have a few showers and storms early, but the highest chance for severe weather looks to be out of the immediate area for Tuesday. The timing of this system may still shift a bit some before next week, so keep tuned to the forecast through the weekend!
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