Warm and windy Monday could lead to severe storms late in the afternoon

 

It was a beautiful Sunday afternoon with highs warming into the upper 60s and low 70s. Southeast winds did increase a bit from Saturday, but that didn't stop many from enjoying the outdoors. Temperatures Monday morning won't be as chilly as Sunday morning when many woke up to patchy frost and lows in the 30s. Monday will start with temperatures in the low 50s.

The first of two warm fronts will lift through the region Monday, with the first bringing a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois around daybreak Monday. The risk with any of these storms is low, but some stronger ones could produce some hail. Once the morning precipitation and clouds clear, it should be a rather windy and warm afternoon. Southerly winds will gust around 40 mph at times as temperatures reach the upper 70s and low 80s.

These warmer temperatures Monday could put a lid, or cap, on our thunderstorm chances during the afternoon, however, that's not certain. The risk for severe storms, and possibly widespread severe weather, across the Midwest - including the Stateline - is there but it's conditional on a few things. And one of those things is the cap during the afternoon.

If the cap holds strong, then our risk for storms during the late afternoon and early evening would be lower. It wouldn't be zero, but it would be lower than if the cap breaks. If, on the other hand, the cap does break then the environment would allow storms to quickly turn severe - most likely forming in the Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin vicinity moving into southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois. If this occurs damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail would all be a concern.

Unfortunately, the question marks on the severe potential and the when/where storms develop is still there. Make sure you are staying up to date with the forecast Monday and be prepared to adjust plans, if needed, for the late afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center does have most of southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois in an 'enhanced risk' for severe storms, with the southeastern half of the forecast area in a 'slight risk' for Monday.

Storms will also be possible during the late evening with the cold front moving through. These too, would have a severe risk with them, although a little lower than our earlier chance.