Severe storm potential returns following a mainly dry weekend

After a spectacularly warm afternoon, cloud cover filled in overnight as our next system approached from the west. A few isolated sprinkles and showers are pivoting through southern Wisconsin prior to the morning commute, though the precipitation that is progressing into eastern Iowa is what we'll be keeping an eye on as we approach midday. 

The highest chance for rain will be before midday, decreasing as the low pulls further away Friday afternoon and evening. Forecast models keep the center of the low to our south, leaving us under a northeasterly wind for much of the day. That, along with this morning's cloud cover and rain chances will leave afternoon highs much cooler compared to the 70s on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, registering most in the low 60s.

As previously mentioned, the weekend is looking nice as high pressure settles in. Partly cloudy skies and a cool breeze can be expected on Saturday, with highs peaking in the low 60s once again. Dry conditions extend into Sunday, though afternoon temperatures will end up slightly warmer thanks to a change in wind to the south and southwest.

From there, all eyes will be on the storm system that could bring a significant round of severe weather to portions of the Midwest early next week. From a meteorological standpoint, all the necessary ingredients including instability, moisture, wind shear, and lift will be in place for thunderstorms that form along the associated cold front. All hazards will be on the table, including strong tornadoes.  

I do think the best chance for severe storms during the daytime hours will be to our west, with the threat shifting our way Monday evening into very early stages of Tuesday. In their latest round of outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center expanded the 30% risk (level 3 of 5, enhanced risk) to now include areas north and west Rockford. Areas along, east, and south of the metro are included in a 15% risk, which is equivalent to a level 2 of 5, Slight Risk.

By Tuesday, the strong cold front will have cleared to the south and east, pushing most of the severe risk out of our area. We may still have a few showers and storms early, but the highest chance for severe weather looks to be out of the immediate area for Tuesday. With that being said, the timing of this severe threat may still shift a bit, so make sure to keep tabs on the forecast over the weekend!