Warm and windy Monday ahead of severe storm chance late

 Our next storm system will arrive early this week, bringing a chance for some strong to severe storms Monday evening and Monday night. Before our storms, the morning and afternoon will be warm and windy with rising humidity, along with possibly a stray shower or thunderstorm. The higher potential and coverage will arrive Monday evening/night with a line of storms from the Northwest. These storms will likely be in some form of a weakening trend, but there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how much they will weaken before they arrive.

Storms will initiate well to our Northwest across portions of Iowa and Minnesota ahead of a cold front. This front will eventually draw the line of storms our way late Monday evening if not early into the night. Note the storms showing a weakening trend, but this is toward the end of the Futurecast model run, so we need to take it with a grain of salt this far out. The linear nature of these storms means the highest threats locally would likely be with damaging winds, but embedded tornadoes would also be possible within the line.

 

The environment ahead of these storms will be primed to keep them going late into the evening. The afternoon will see peak daytime heating near 80-degrees, along with dew points rising into the 60s. This will allow for a large area of high instability, or storm energy, to develop. Much of this energy will persist late into the evening ahead of the front.

Another factor storms use to maintain their strength is a strong low-level jet. This is an area of winds about five thousand feet above the surface. These winds help to enhance the forcing along the front, aiding to maintain that storm strength. The later into the night you go, the weaker instability will be, but the low-level jet may help keep the storms going.

That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty with how far South and East the severe threat will extend. But given the ingredients that look to be in place, a Level 3/5 Enhanced risk for severe weather covers most of the Stateline region around Rockford for Monday evening/night. The higher confidence in storms during peak daytime heating will remain further Northwest. There, a Level 4/5 Moderate Risk extends from Southeastern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin and down into much of Northern and Central Iowa.

The environment will be primed for severe storms across a broad region, but questions remain as to how far away from initiation the storms will maintain their strength. For now, action steps include reviewing your plans Monday evening and thinking ahead as to where you might go if severe warnings were to be issued. Also make sure to have a way to wake you up if there would be any warnings that would come out after bedtime! S