As we move into the last week of April, we've seen temperatures slowly creep up throughout the month to the point where yesterday's 60-degree temperatures almost felt cooler compared to the day prior! We'll see this pattern stick around into the weekend, however as we move towards the beginning of the week warm weather along with strong to severe thunderstorms look to return.
Today will be very similar to yesterday as we'll see another comfortable day with temperatures in the low 60's along with plenty of sunshine today! Wind speeds today will also be calm as high pressure both today and tomorrow will keep us seasonable with not much of a breeze to talk about! Temperatures will climb through the weekend but as we move into Monday, the chance for thunderstorms, some severe will return.
Storms will be forced along a cold front Monday evening which will bring the highest chances during the daytime for areas to our north and west. Heading into the nighttime though depending on how much instability hangs around, we could see these storms keep severe intensity into the night.
As talked about by most of the First Warn Weather team over the past few days, this system moving in on Monday has caught eyes for a few days in advance. The Storm Prediction Center outlined multiple long-range outlooks throughout the Midwest this week, however Monday's threat has now been upgraded to a 4/5 Moderate Risk for areas to our north and west. Areas in the moderate risk have the highest chance for severe weather, however into the nighttime storms that form to our north and west will dive south towards the state line into the night.
Zooming in a bit on the state line right now the severe thunderstorm risk is split nearly in half throughout the region. Most of the area right now is under a level 3/5 Enhanced risk into Monday night. As storms to our west grow into a fast-moving line strong downpours with lightning will be almost guaranteed however the severe risk currently outlines the risk for damaging winds along with a few brief and isolated tornadoes.
Instability will be the big question mark heading into the night though. As the sun sets a nose of warmer air or "cap" will begin to develop, depending on how strong this cap is we can either see thunderstorms continue at strength or weaken into the night.
Most models now have a fast-moving line segment or "MCS" moving through the state line as we head into the night. As previously mentioned, this type of system would most likely bring the chances of damaging severe wind gusts with it but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out all depending on how much instability we have into the night. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings into the night as well as keeping your phone volume on!
Luckily severe thunderstorm chances into Tuesday have begun to shift further to our south and east. On Tuesday we could see a few isolated thunderstorms hanging around through the morning however most severe activity will stay to our south and east. We look to cool down and dry off a bit into the evening then on Tuesday!
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