Severe storms still on the table this afternoon into Monday night

It was another fantastic day Sunday with lots of sun and afternoon highs in the low 70s. Temperatures remain on the upward swing for the start of the work week, though we'll have to monitor the potential for strong to severe storms.

The first of two warm fronts will lift through the region around daybreak, bringing with it a small chance for isolated showers and storms The risk with any of these storms is low, but some stronger ones could produce some hail. 

Once the morning precipitation and clouds clear, it should be a rather windy and warm afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly winds will gust around 40 mph at times as temperatures reach the upper 70s and low 80s. These warmer temperatures could put a lid, or cap, on our storm chances during the afternoon, however, that's not certain. The risk for severe storms, and possibly widespread severe weather, across the Midwest - including the Stateline - is there but it's conditional on a few things. And one of those things is the cap during the afternoon.

If the cap holds strong, then our risk for storms during the late afternoon and early evening would be lower. It wouldn't be zero, but it would be much lower than if the cap breaks. If the cap manages to break, then the environment would be prime for thunderstorms to evolve and rapidly turn severe. 

Some models this morning are getting a better understanding of today's storm evolution, showing a round of storms firing up near the Iowa - Minnesota border late in the afternoon, then bringing them towards the region this evening into early tonight. If this occurs damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail would all be a concern. For now, make sure you are staying up to date with the forecast and be prepared to adjust plans, if needed, for the late afternoon and evening hours. 

In their latest round of severe outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center has left most of southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois in a level 3 of 5, Enhanced Risk for severe storms, with the southeastern half of the forecast area in a level 2 of 5, Slight Risk. The cold front should be through the region come daybreak Tuesday, leaving us cooler and drier with afternoon highs rolling back into the upper 60s.