Sunday morning weather update

 Over the next few days precipitation and thunderstorm chances will continue to rise as a ridge of upper-level winds begin to make its way into the region. Right now, though an upper-level low pressure system is bringing increased humidity, moisture and precipitation to the state line this morning and afternoon.

Currently a wide band of light rain is occurring in the southern tier of counties of the state line with rain to continue to move to the northeast through the morning. Although not heavy this rain will stick around for at least the few hours of the morning until clearing with clouds and some sunshine make an appearance later in the late morning.

However, depending on atmospheric recovery behind the rain some showers and thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon today as well. Depending on how much sunshine we get through the morning this will either increase or decrease or thunderstorm risk. Right now, not much destabilization or sunshine is expected to occur however even with that some scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening with quick downpours and possibly some gustier winds.

As the evening approaches though instability will quickly decrease along with thunderstorm chances.

Into Monday morning though, showers and thunderstorms begin to move into the state line once again. This is due to a small warm front lifting north through the morning, with some instability clearly present, some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out early tomorrow morning. This round does look to be more widespread with some heavier rain so through the morning especially during morning travel time keep an eye out for widespread downpours and rumbles of thunder.

But, after the morning round on Monday, skies are expected to clear behind the line with instability rapidly increasing through time Monday evening. The sunshine is the main cause of increasing unstable air so with more sunshine expect more unstable air and possibly stronger storms. Currently the storm prediction center has us under a 1/5 marginal risk for severe thunderstorms through Monday. This marginal risk is for all hazards however as of now damaging wind gusts seem to be the highest peril into tomorrow.

Expect thunderstorm chances to continue through the week this week as enhanced upper-level winds, high humidity, and higher temperatures return to the Midwest.