As I am very quickly reminded many times, the weather is sometimes quite unpredictable. This is the case especially heading into the week ahead with multiple chances for strong to severe storms, but very low confidence on each one. There are a number of factors that play into how a storm complex will develop, but oftentimes it is hard to tell how one will develop until the previous round has moved out. This will be evident many times this week, starting with tomorrow morning. The shower coverage (or lack thereof) will heavily impact how strong our next potential round of storms may be. That will determine where any boundaries or outflows get placed, along with how much instability (storm energy) may build back in for the afternoon. Similar uncertainties exist with each storm chance through mid-week, but we do look to remain under an active pattern throughout that time with multiple storm complexes passing through the Midwest region this week.
Starting with Monday, our morning shower activity may inhibit the destabilization of the atmosphere heading into the afternoon. Some computer models are much more bullish on this than others, but generally speaking, a lack of mid/late morning storms will enhance the risk later in the day. We also have to watch upstream for any developing waves aloft that will provide the forcing and shear for storms to develop. With the uncertainties in place, the Storm Prediction Center has a very broad area under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk for severe weather.
Similar uncertainties exist for Tuesday, but this time around more storm energy appears to be available for any storms to use. Fortunately, the upper-air support may be slower to arrive, approaching from the West after sunset. In theory, this would limit the overall severe risk if it were to play out like that. As of now, the afternoon appears very hot and humid with late evening storm chances rising. SPC once again has a broad region under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk.
On each day, if storms were to remain limited or nonexistent, the heat and humidity would likely build up, with heat indices approaching 100° at times. This is especially true for Tuesday through Thursday. I maintained our storm chances on the forecast, with highest confidence as of now within the Monday evening/Tuesday night windows in the short term. Lower confidence exists with our next possible storm window between Wednesday and Thursday. A general drying trend will be present into the weekend, with slightly cooler afternoon highs back in the mid-80s.
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