Increased precipitation chances next week

 As the past two weeks now have been seasonably cooler and relatively dry in terms of precipitation we can start to look into this weekend and next week when the pattern begins to change. Through the past week or so high pressure has dominated much of the lower 48 causing calmer and drier weather which has fueled some of the fires out West. But expect that to change at least in the Midwest as upper-level winds and increased moisture will increase thunderstorm chances.

Over the next week these two main ingredients will combine almost daily to bring higher precipitation chances to the Midwest nearly every day. Showers and thunderstorms need three main ingredients those being, moisture, lift and instability. Over the next week two of the three boxes will be checked off as moisture and lift will be present but depending on instability from day to day can increase or inhibit thunderstorm development.

This pattern starts to take shape Monday as upper-level winds from the northwest (Northwest flow) from a ridge is set to move over the Midwest. With those enhanced winds deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be funneled northward giving two things we need for storms. Instability Monday is a very big factor as of now as the Storm Prediction Center has the entire state line under a level 1/5 marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. If instability is realized a severe thunderstorm threat may develop as the "special" ingredient for severe weather is present being wind shear which is the change in wind direction with height. This wind shear helps organize thunderstorms and cause them to be longer lasting and taking in more instability helping them become severe.

This pattern continues into Wednesday then as more enhanced upper-level flow is still over the region with ample moisture. Wednesday and much of the rest of the week will be days to watch for scattered thunderstorm develop as once again two of the main ingredients are present. Instability rides normally on how much sunlight we can get, as sunlight heats the surface and makes it more unstable through time with moisture. If instability is realized throughout the week expect near daily thunderstorm, chances moving ahead.

With daily near daily thunderstorm chances, this will also increase total rainfall through the week. That being said, more rainfall may be coming for an already wet season! The crops are sure loving this rainfall but be on the lookout once again for flash flood warnings if days of rainfall occur.