Dry and comfortable through Labor Day

 

The sun was slow to make an appearance Saturday afternoon, but there was just enough to give temperatures a little boost into the low to mid 70s. A few spots even made it into the upper 70s. Now, a lake breeze moving inland has brought a chill into the region as temperatures slowly fall through the low to mid 60s.

We were dealt few clouds throughout the day but should slowly see our skies clear through the night as high pressure holds its grip across the Great Lakes. This will allow overnight lows to dip into the low 50s. The spread between the dew point temperature and air temperature won't be much, so patchy fog could be possible early Sunday morning. But with drier air in place Sunday afternoon, we should see a little less in the way of cloud cover and a little more sunshine. This will help warm afternoon temperatures into the mid and upper 70s. Similar to Saturday, however, we may see another lake breeze develop impacting areas to the east late in the day.

The warming trend will continue into Labor Day, as well as Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 70s. There could even be a few spots that reach 80 degrees - which is our average for the end of August and beginning of September. 

Labor Day weekend forecast

 The upcoming Labor Day weekend looks favorable for any outdoor plans, with afternoon highs returning to the mid-70s and overnight lows only back to the mid-50s. Cloud cover will decrease throughout the day Saturday, giving us more sunshine for Sunday and Monday.

We may see a few very isolated showers Saturday and again Monday, but the bulk of any rain will be held West of the Stateline. High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep most of the moisture West of us, preventing any meaningful rain from spreading over the area.

That's not to say we will end up totally dry, but rain coverage will be isolated at best through Tuesday. Rainfall totals after Friday night will only reach a tenth of an inch at the most. Higher chances for rain will arrive mid-week along a cold front, which will also bring the next round of fall-like chill.

Scattered showers and isolated storms to kick off Friday night football

 Pockets of light to steady rain and even a few isolated storms have been working across Southern Wisconsin this afternoon. There are some limiting factors in Northern Illinois, but scattered showers will likely continue for some across the Stateline this evening for at least the start of area football games.

Lightning threat is highest across far Northwestern Illinois through 7PM. Otherwise, it will be getting cooler, with temperatures down to the low and mid-60s by the final whistle of games

Shower chances remain low for high school football, increase slightly overnight

The fall-like chill is back. Thursday's cold front has put us right back where we were at the beginning of the week, leaving lows in the low 50s. 

This cooler start will pave the way for another cooler than average afternoon as a light but organized east to northeast wind leaves us in the mid 70s. I wouldn't be shocked with the way we warmed up yesterday to see a locale or two in the upper 70s. 

If you plan to attend week 1 of high school football, grab a sweatshirt or light jacket. Temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 60s to start, then in to the low 60s by the end of the games. You may also run into an isolated shower or two as another weak system dives in from the northwest. 

 

Forecast soundings show shower chances extend into the first half of Saturday morning, with overnight lows falling back into the low 50s. 

 

 

 

Once this weak disturbance departs, the rest of Labor Day weekend will be mainly dry. The only other chance we see for any rain will be a slim chance on Labor Day itself. Afternoon highs will gradually warm, climbing closer to average.
 

 

September to start off with a cool, fall-like chill

 Much of the second half of August has featured cooler-than-average temperatures, and that trend looks to stick with us to kick off September as well. We will see a few days with highs near 80° around Labor Day weekend, but another sharp cool down will follow for the middle of next week. This deep trough, or dip in the jet stream, will slide in from Canada between Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a cooler and breezy stretch for the second half of the week.

The strong cold front arrives early Wednesday, which likely only allows highs to reach the low or mid-70s before a sharp drop in temperatures late that evening. Overnight lows will likely reach down into the low 50s and upper 40s Wednesday and Thursday nights. Afternoon highs Thursday will likely top out below 70°.

Thursday just kicks off the cooler stretch, as we maintain a high chance we will see below normal temperatures through the first week of September. Climate Prediction Center gives us a 70-80% chance to see below average temperatures between the 3rd and 7th of the month. This likely means a few days of highs near/below 70° and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Quiet and comfortable to round out the month of August

 

Skies have been dry and temperatures have warmed following the early morning rain that come through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Not every location had rain, but where the heaviest rain came down totals added up to just under half an inch.

Clouds were quick to clear mid to late morning leading to partly cloudy skies throughout the afternoon. The added sunshine gave temperatures a nice little boost into the mid and upper 70s, with a few locations even reaching 80 degrees. It's been several days since temperatures have been this warm.

A lake-enhanced cold front has already passed through the Stateline Thursday evening, noted by the wind shift to the northeast. There have been a few showers and isolated thunderstorms that have developed right along it, mainly south of I-80. With the front already to our south any precipitation chances locally remain limited through the evening. Skies will begin to clear as the sun sets and temperatures dip into the low 50s. Patchy fog may also be possible early Friday.

High pressure moving down the Great Lakes through the weekend will keep conditions mostly dry, but an isolated sprinkle/light shower or two can't be ruled out thanks to a very subtle upper-level disturbance moving through Wisconsin late Friday. It'll be a battle between the incoming moisture and dry air, but the highest precipitation chances appear to remain mostly to our west and northwest. 

Scattered showers/sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into Saturday, but mostly dry conditions can be expected through Labor Day. Temperatures by the end of the weekend and start of next week will warm close to 80 degrees, closer to average.    

Labor Day weekend starts off cool thanks to Thursday's cold front

For those that were getting a little worried about their grass, fear not. Mother nature was kind enough to send a weak disturbance our way overnight, bringing a nice soaking to Rockford. 

 

 

This morning batch should end before mid-morning, leaving us partly cloudy into the afternoon. However, a backdoor cold front (one that moves north to south) is scheduled to push into the Stateline during the late-afternoon and early-evening hours. With it, forecast models have shown a secondary round of extremely isolated rain showers sparking up. Some may end up with a few raindrops, other will miss out. Any chance for rain should wind down around sunset once the cold front is located to our south.

What this cold front will also do is help carry this week's taste of fall into Labor Day weekend. Skies will clear out early tonight, allowing temperatures to fall back into the low 50s. Friday and Saturday will be mainly dry, though a slim chance for a shower or two will be possible overnight Friday into Saturday morning. With winds remaining out of the northeast, both days feature afternoon highs in the low 70s. Again, this is something that is more typical during the second half of September.

Early look at Labor Day weekend weather forecast

 If Memorial Day is the unofficial start to summer, then Labor Day is the unofficial start to fall. And it certainly will continue to feel like fall as we head into the holiday weekend. Following Thursday's cold front and spotty showers, we will dry out and cool down again Friday and Saturday, with highs only in the low 70s. Sunday and Monday will feature slowly rising temperatures, as we return to the mid and upper 80s.

We will stay dry for at least most of the holiday weekend, but Monday may feature a few light showers, especially to the West of Rockford. This slow-moving weather system will bring a few spotty showers across parts of Iowa Sunday, then inch a little closer to Northern Illinois by Monday.

The rainfall we get from that will not amount to much, however. Long-term outlooks tend to favor limited rainfall totals over the next week, with some in Central Illinois possibly seeing no measurable rain in the next 7 days. Outside of higher amounts within thunderstorms, most in the Stateline will end up with under 0.25" of rain through Tuesday.

Another cold front will slide through the Stateline next Wednesday, bringing a better chance for some showers, but also another drop in temperatures toward the second half of next week. We will likely see another round of fall-like chill settle in for at least a few days, with Climate Prediction Center giving us a 60-70% chance to see below average temperatures between the 2nd and 6th of September. Even out to the middle of September looks unfavorable for any stretches of summer-like heat, so fall is here to stay at least for a bit!

Clouds thicken ahead of light rain Wednesday afternoon

 

Wednesday started off with plenty of chills as temperatures fell into the mid and upper 40s, but we were quick to warm thanks to an abundance of sunshine. The sunny sky didn't last long as cloud cover was quick to move in mid to late morning as a weak upper-level disturbance moves through eastern Iowa.

This disturbance brought with it a few light showers, now moving into west-central Illinois. We likely won't see much from this activity locally, but a sprinkle or very brief light shower can't be ruled out into the early evening as a few additional scattered showers are noted further to the northwest.

Once this disturbance moves out, we'll see partial clearing take place into the overnight. Temperatures tonight will be quite a bit warmer than what they've been the last few nights, only falling a degree or two below 60. This can be attributed to an increase in cloud cover early Thursday and a southwest breeze that'll take us into the morning.

By morning, scattered showers - and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two - will be possible. As the cold front slides across the region an isolated shower and/or storm can't be ruled out during the afternoon. Rainfall totals won't be much and should remain under a couple tenths of an inch. Drier conditions can be expected for Thursday night.   

Isolated rain chances accompany Thursday's cold front

Chilly to start, though temperatures will climb further into the 70s this afternoon. With a wind shift to the west and southwest, expect afternoon highs to wind up in the mid to upper 70s. 

Most of the day will be dry. However, a disturbance sliding in from the west may bring areas closer to the Mississippi a shower or two this afternoon. Areas near I-39 have a better shot at seeing a shower or storm overnight into Thursday morning. 

With a cold front diving in, a secondary round remains on the table for Thursday evening. Forecast models showed the best chance along and south of the Illinois/Wisconsin border. Brief, heavy downpours will be the only concern, which may leave a locale or two with .10" to .20" of rain. 

Once the front is through, we do see a wind shift to the east and northeast for Friday. This will help carry this taste of fall into Labor Day weekend. Afternoon highs will be limited to the low 70s, with overnight lows hovering around the 50° mark.

Why cumulus clouds have flat bases?

 

Have you ever looked at cumulus clouds and wondered why they have flat bases? A question I was asked earlier from April was just that; "Why do the clouds today all have flat bases?" To answer that, we must look at what is happening in our atmosphere:

There were a few clouds at the start of Tuesday, but sunny skies were quick to prevail through mid to late morning. Shortly after that you may have noticed cumulus clouds beginning to form and grow. Warm air is less dense than cool air. So, when the sun came out it warmed the air around us causing it to rise. This rising air, as it cools, reaches its dew point temperature and becomes saturated at a point in the atmosphere known as the LCL - lifting condensation level. Water vapor condenses into little, tiny water droplets which form the base of the cloud. The rising air will continue to cool, expand, and condense causing the puffy look to the top of the cloud.

The amount of moisture in the atmosphere will not only help determine where the base of the cumulus cloud will form, but also how tall the cloud will grow. Other factors such as instability, wind shear, forcing and lift can help grow those cumulus clouds into cumulonimbus clouds (thunderstorms).

"False fall" remains in place ahead of Labor Day weekend

It's hard to believe we were chatting about afternoon highs in the 90s and the likelihood for extreme heat warnings at this point in August last year. This year, the "false fall" season is absolute full swing as highs have been in the 70s the past three days and look to remain in the 70s until further notice. 

 

Along with this cooler, comfortable stretch comes a few chilly nights as overnight lows look to hug the 50° mark into Labor Day weekend. Like the chill we have out there this morning, we may see a night or two drop down into the 40s.

 

 

With high pressure nearby, we will continue to remain dry with lots of sunshine today and for a good portion of the day tomorrow. It's not until Wednesday evening where clouds will increase as a secondary cold front approaches from the northwest. Ahead of it, we may see a shower or storm Wednesday afternoon and then again into Thursday morning.
 

Chances will be isolated and should come to an end once the cold front is to our south. Behind Thursday's frontal passage, dry conditions settle back in with highs dropping back into the low 70s.
 
 

Limited rain chances this week; Cooler pattern sticks around

 

Temperatures Monday afternoon felt more like late September rather than late August as highs struggled to make it out of the 60s. Rockford reached a high of 70 Monday afternoon, 11 degrees below average.

As clouds clear out through the night temperatures will continue to fall on either side of 50 degrees. It'll be a chilly start Tuesday, but similar to Monday afternoon temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and low 70s, with a forecast high of 72. The cooler air aloft combined with the sunshine early on will help create an environment for cumulus clouds to quickly develop by mid to late morning. This, at times, may cause our skies to turn mostly cloudy. Given the limited amount of moisture in the atmosphere precipitation is not expected, but a few sprinkles can't be ruled out.

Winds will turn to the southwest and west Wednesday afternoon pulling in a little more moisture ahead of a cold front. This front will pass through the Stateline early Thursday morning. As it does a few scattered showers - and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder or two - will be possible during that time. Rainfall will remain light, adding up to only a few tenths of an inch. Winds will turn to the north, then northeast, Thursday night and Friday. This will be accompanied by another upper-level trough and renewed push of cooler air.

A blocking ridge of high pressure over Canada will slowly begin to break down heading into Labor Day weekend, but how fast the ridge breaks down will determine how fast temperatures will warm. High temperatures will warm back closer to average into the upper 70s.

Comfortable stretch continues with slowly warming temperatures

 For those like me who like cooler temperatures, this past weekend was absolutely perfect in terms of temperatures with daytime high's staying in the low to mid 70's while overnight lows have begun to creep ever closer to the upper 40's! Today looks to be the coolest day of this stretch however temperatures will begin to climb through the week.

Today will be the first true day of early fall as we're already making a run at the upper 40's here this early morning! Temperatures will climb to 70 degrees this afternoon as well while some areas may only get to the upper 60's. An isolated sprinkle will once again be possible this afternoon, however with limited moisture available we will most likely see just partly cloudy skies.

High pressure will slowly move in tonight then which looks to keep us calm and cool over the next two days at least. Temperatures will begin to slightly warm though as winds a just above the surface begin to turn out of the south. By Thursday then a weak disturbance and cold front will move through bringing the chances of a few scattered showers.

Towards the end of the week not much looks to change as by Friday continued cooler and drier flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will keep temperatures consistent in the mid to upper 70's! This stretch looks to stick around until at least Sunday where our upper-level jet stream may begin to become a bit more active with slightly warmer temperatures returning.

Few chilly nights ahead with slow return near average this week

 The fall-like chill will continue for a few more days, featuring several cool nights through the early part of the week. Starting with Sunday night, a clearing sky following some spotty evening showers will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s. Similar overnight lows will be expected Monday and Tuesday nights, as well. The last time Rockford dropped below 50° was back on the morning of June 2nd!

We will see temperatures slowly climb, eventually back to the mid-70s by the middle of the week. But that also comes with another passing cold front, which could bring a few spotty showers on Thursday. Play the video below to see the daily forecast through Thursday and the timing of Thursday's cold front.

Behind this front, there is a signal for another round of cooler air. Climate Prediction Center outlooks still favor below average temperatures into the first few days of September. While it may not be as cool as the current stretch of fall-like air, this signals that we are unlikely to see any summer heat and humidity return in the near term.

Chilly, fall-like air stays put into next week

Here we go folks. Our first taste of fall has arrived and it is leaving temperatures across the western Great Lakes 10 to as much as 15 degrees cooler than at this point Saturday morning! 

 

 

Most will wake up with temperatures in the low to mid 50s, with afternoon highs barely making it into the low 70s. Though we'll see a good deal of sun throughout the day, an organized and cool northwest wind will severely limit our warm up. 

A few shallow-topped clouds may grow into an isolated shower this afternoon and evening. Coverage of these showers will remain quite low, with most locations staying dry. Those who do end up seeing a shower may receive up to 0.1" of rain. Otherwise, we can expect any chance for a shower to decrease toward the late evening as the sun sets. Overnight, temperatures will get even cooler, landing in the upper 40s. 

Coolest air will settle over the area Monday, limiting some Stateline locales to the upper 60s. Rockford doesn't see this kind of chill isn't expected until early-October, but alas, we are getting a taste of it prior to the Labor Day weekend. Unfortunately for fall-lovers, this stretch of a fall-like chill is somewhat brief, as the cool pocket of air will warm closer to average by the end of the week. Wednesday and Thursday will see afternoon highs return to the low to mid 70s, then we are back near 80° by next weekend.
 

Fall-like stretch with few chilly overnights ahead

 Following this morning's cold front, we are in store for a nice taste of fall-like weather next week. Temperatures will near 10 degrees below normal over the next few days! Sunday morning will start out cool, in the low to mid-50s. By afternoon. temperatures only rebound to the low 70s under a partly cloudy sky.

A few shallow-topped clouds may produce an isolated shower or two Sunday afternoon and early evening. Coverage of these showers will remain quite low, with most locations dry at any given time. Those who do see showers may receive up to 0.1" of rain within them. Rain coverage will decrease toward the late evening as the sun sets.

Outside of any spotty showers, it will be a bit breezy once again. Similar to Saturday, Sunday will feature wind gusts near 25 mph through the afternoon and early evening. The Northwesterly direction is the primary driver for the cooler air mass settling in overhead during this time. Wind gusts will ease also as the sun sets.

Afternoon high temperatures the next few days will be on either side of the 70-degree mark, about 10° below average for this time of year. The next few overnights will also be refreshing if not downright chilly. The forecast for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights calls for lows in the upper 40s! This is much closer to average for late September than late August.

Unfortunately for fall-lovers, this stretch of fall chill is somewhat short lived, as the cool pocket of air will moderate closer to average by the end of the week. Wednesday and Thursday will see highs return to the mid-70s, then we are back near 80° by next weekend.