Strong to severe storms return to the Stateline mid-week

 The active early Spring pattern is set to continue this week with the risk for strong to severe storms locally both Wednesday morning and afternoon. But the afternoon threat is conditional on what we exactly see early Wednesday morning. So, let's break it down:

Monday evening:

Skies will remain mostly clear as high pressure slides across the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures that warmed into the upper 40s and low 50s during the afternoon will fall as the sun sets and the northerly breeze eases up. This will allow overnight lows to dip into the upper 20s overnight. Skies will remain mostly clear through the night, with only a few clouds expected early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday morning and afternoon:

Sunshine will greet us Tuesday morning but expect cloud cover to increase through Noon, turning skies mostly cloudy during the afternoon. The afternoon hours will be dry as a southeast wind helps warm temperatures into the upper 40s. This is still below our average high of 54 degrees for April 1st. By late afternoon a few sprinkles and/or light rain showers will develop, with a few snowflakes mixing in near and north of the state line. No accumulations or impacts are expected from that. Scattered light showers will continue through the rest of the evening as temperatures hold steady, rising through early Wednesday.

Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning:

The threat for isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible during the early morning hours Wednesday as the remnants of storms that develop late Tuesday evening over the Plains shift east. A rather strong upper-level system will move across the Plains and Midwest as increasing winds and instability occur out ahead of it.

Elevated thunderstorms will develop early Wednesday morning as a warm front approaches from the south. These storms may be strong enough to produce hail, some of which could reach severe limits (one inch in diameter). While the highest risk is for hail, damaging wind gusts could also occur. It looks like the window for these storms to move through would begin just before sunrise, possibly lasting through late morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of northern Illinois within a 'slight' risk for severe storms, with a 'marginal' risk extending into southern Wisconsin.

Wednesday afternoon/evening:

The threat for any additional thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening remains conditional on what occurs Wednesday morning. Given the strong dynamics of the incoming storm system the threat is there locally, but if the morning activity is slow to leave it would likely limit how much we are able to recover for additional storms to redevelop during the late afternoon and evening. The trend has been for the morning storms to last a little longer, pushing the afternoon and evening threat a little further to our east and southeast. But that could change.

If, however, the storms are faster to move out and the cold front is slower to move in then our severe threat during the late afternoon and evening would increase.

There is an 'enhanced' risk for severe storms for Wednesday afternoon for much of northern Illinois. A 'slight' risk is in place for southern Wisconsin.

The way things look now the thunderstorms during the morning may have the higher severe potential, but we cannot let our guard down for the afternoon. Please make sure you are staying up to date on the forecast and be ready for the storms as they move in Wednesday morning.

  

Northern Illinois to see not one, but two chances for strong to severe storms this week

Sunday's cold front will spell a chilly but dry end to what has been an active March. Temperatures this morning are sitting in the low 30s, which registers 8° to as much as 26° compared to 24 hours ago. 

Even though we do see cloud cover decrease by mid to late morning, expect this morning's chill to make for a much cooler afternoon. A cool northerly wind will limit highs to the upper 40s.

April begins with a similar chill. High pressure to our north will keep skies mostly clear, leaving us on either side of 30° mark. The difference however is cloud cover as we look to cloud over quickly by Tuesday afternoon. This, along with a more easterly to southeasterly wind will leave high temperatures in the mid 40s. Not too long after will be a chance for a few rain showers, though I do think we will have to keep an eye on stuff to the west as that could pose a severe weather threat overnight.   

In their latest round of outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center placed most of the Stateline under a level 2 of 5, Slight Risk for severe weather. Damaging winds and hail are the biggest concerns. Now, because this severe threat arrives when most of you will be catching some Zs, make sure to turn the volume up on your NOAA weather radio and your cell phone so you can easily be woken up. 

Depending on how things go Wednesday morning, the Stateline could see another threat for strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon. All severe hazards could be on the table. Again, we will have to see how long storms last Wednesday morning as that could push the more conducive parameters east, lowering the severe threat locally. Stay tuned today and tomorrow for further updates.

Active stretch of weather continues later this week

 The Stateline missed out on the impactful severe weather from Sunday, with most of the storms pushing well South and East of Rockford. On the tail end of this system, colder air is already beginning to filter in. This may allow for a few wrap-around showers to fall as rain or snow, particularly between 11PM-4AM. Any snow that does come down should not accumulate, but could limit visibility for a short time.

We will dry out by sunrise Monday morning, but temperatures will only rebound to the mid-40s. We will see some late afternoon and evening sunshine as cloud cover filters out of the area through the second half of Monday. Tuesday will bring more cloud cover, a few evening showers, and our next chance for storms late.

Futurecast has the strongest of the storms moving in after midnight Wednesday morning, primarily West of Rockford. The main concerns with these storms will be hail and damaging winds, given the elevated nature of them arriving overnight. The Western half of the Stateline is under a Level 2/5 Slight risk for severe storms.

The potential for storms will continue into Wednesday morning and afternoon. There could be a lull between a few waves of storms, and that lapse in precipitation may allow for stronger storms to develop. At the moment, storms appear to be most likely during the first half of Wednesday, with chances diminishing through the afternoon.

Wednesday's storm system could again produce a wide swath of severe weather, with a large portion of the Ohio River Valley down through Arkansas under a 30% risk (Enhanced risk equivalent) for severe weather, while the 15% (Slight equivalent) risk extends through much of the Stateline. Overall, the upper-level dynamics of this system look stronger than Sunday's, but the limited daytime heating could be our limiting factor. Point being, there is another risk for severe weather Tuesday night into Wednesday, so keep tuned to the forecast over the next few days!

Sunday morning weather update

 

Currently, showers and thunderstorms have developed over central portions of the state line and are quickly moving east. These storms will be capable of a few heavy downbursts at times as well as a few flashes of lightning and thunder but won't pose a threat for severe weather.

 

The main focus today will be our chances for severe weather into the afternoon. The good news is that the Storm Prediction Center has downgraded our chances for much of the state line as most of the region is now under a marginal 1/5 risk. The primary concerns with these storms will be a few damaging wind gusts along with some small hail however there may be isolated and even possibly no storms this afternoon.

The afternoon round of thunderstorms will rely on the how the first round of thunderstorms evolves this morning. Through the morning from 7-11 a.m. a round of thunderstorms is expected to move through although most of these aren't expected to be severe. Still through the morning a few heavy downbursts with consistent lightning and possibly some small hail will be possible. With the morning round moving through, any available instability will be eaten up by these storms and depending on how the atmosphere recovers into the afternoon, we will see how severe weather trends into the afternoon.

Into the evening thunderstorm development would range from 2-5 p.m. however through the afternoon the best of the instability and moisture will gradually slide south and east. As of now future cast along with other models are in agreement on isolated to no storms developing in the afternoon hours. However, the threat is not completely out of the woods as with extra sunshine or weaker morning storms, any instability hanging around into the afternoon will aid in thunderstorm development. If storms do fire into the afternoon these have the possibility of being severe with damaging winds and small hail being the primary threat.

Make sure to pay attention to any watches or warnings issued today!

 

Timing out the severe weather potential Sunday

 Temperatures will have a sharp gradient tonight as a front bisects the area. South of the front, lows will only reach the upper 50s, while North of it will see lows in the 40s. This front will also be the epicenter for a few showers and elevated storms, particularly into the early hours of Sunday morning.

The early morning round will likely not produce any severe weather, but there are a few windows to watch for Sunday. Between 5-10AM Sunday morning, we could see a few gusty storms develop with isolated pockets of small hail. I do not expect these storms to produce widespread severe weather, but a marginally severe storm or two may be possible. Depending on how the first round of storms evolve, there is another wave of storms possible between 1-6PM. This round could produce widespread severe weather but is heavily dependent on how the first round develops. If we see limited recovery and daytime heating between rounds, the second round would be generally weaker locally.

Futurecast has generally been depicting both rounds consistently thus far, with a few isolated storms during the early and mid-morning hours of Sunday. These storms could produce marginally severe winds and hail, but many storms from this round will remain on the weaker side.

We may even briefly dry out between rounds, but the early afternoon is when another wave of storms will develop. Futurecast currently places this round primarily South and East of the viewing area, keeping us free of widespread severe weather. If the system were to slow down any further, recovery between the two rounds would be greater. This could allow for stronger storms locally toward far Northern Illinois.

The outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlights the confidence of storms well. Most of the Stateline region around Rockford is under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk, while Levels 2 and 3 (Slight and Enhanced) are further South and East where daytime heating will be maximized before the line of storms arrive. Stay up to date on the forecast and be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings for tomorrow morning and afternoon!

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this weekend

 After setting the record high temperature for Rockford yesterday, we look to once again stay warm today although not to the record levels we reached yesterday. Another common theme from yesterday will be a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms look possible through the weekend.

Starting with today where we will stay warm through the day today, however some scattered rain showers through the day will offer cloud cover unlike yesterday. Scattered showers will be possible anywhere from 12-6 pm later today with chances decreasing into the evening. However, as we go into the overnight hours, a few thunderstorms may be possible although severe thunderstorm chances remain higher to our west.

 

Timing those showers out today, rainfall should not be widespread however instances of sprinkles and some heavier downpours will be possible through much of the afternoon and early evening. Right now, chances for a few showers looks to be highest around the 5 pm timeframe as both moisture and lift in the atmosphere line up at a better time to offer more showers. These showers shouldn't be enough to ruin anyone's day though as most of these will not last long and will be relatively light.

Into tomorrow however, thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm chances begin to rise as we move into the morning. Right now, southeastern portions of the state line are under a slight (2/5) risk while northwestern portions are under a marginal (1/5) risk. Primary concerns with tomorrow's system will be damaging winds and hail as the warm front will be right overhead. Areas to our south and east will have higher chances as much more instability will be present.

 

The best of the instability that will be transported into our region will be during the morning hours right before the cold front comes through. The good news is that with the cold front arriving early, instability will not be able to increase much with less sunshine to improve it. However, some moderate instability is expected to develop promotion some thunderstorms. But as seen on future cast, those stronger thunderstorm chances will be highest to our south and east.

We're not done talking about severe weather though! Into the middle of the week, another dynamic weather system will move through the Midwest offering another chance for showers and thunderstorms. With the combination of good moisture and upper-level winds being modeled, the storm prediction center has issued a slight risk for much of the state line. Placement and agreement will be moved around over the coming days; however Wednesday will be another day to keep an eye on. 

Rain and storm chances increase over the weekend

 

Friday was a very warm and windy day in the Stateline with highs in the upper 70s for most. In Rockford, we set a new record high for today's date! 80° was today's high, breaking the previous record of 79° set back in 1910.

The record warmth was brought to us by a large area of warm air South of a warm front that passed through Friday morning. That front will have big implications on our forecast through the weekend-- for temperatures and precipitation. Overnight, the front will remain well to the North, keeping some spots in the upper 50s for overnight lows!

We will remain dry throughout the night, but scattered showers will make their return through the daytime hours of Saturday. It will not be raining the entire day, but increased moisture South of the warm front will allow for periodic showers. These should gradually increase in coverage throughout the day and continue into the night. High temperatures will be near 70° on Saturday.

Sunday will bring additional showers and a storm chance midday as well. Between mid-morning and early afternoon, there is a narrow window for a few strong to severe storms. Additional showers will remain possible into the evening as well, but any local severe threat will have ended by the late afternoon. Temperatures will reach into the mid-60s early on but will quickly fall through the evening.

Multiple things will have to line up for this severe weather chance to come to fruition locally. With the wave arriving early in the day with some showers ongoing beforehand, coverage of storms may be limited locally. Nonetheless, the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the Stateline under a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk (in green) or Level 2/5 Slight Risk (yellow) for severe weather. Higher chances for severe weather will remain to the South and East with more favorable timing, as a Level 3/5 Enhanced Risk (brown) encompasses much of downstate Illinois into Indiana.

Locally, we could also see a brief flip to a wintry mix Sunday night into Monday as colder air quickly wraps in the back side of the system. Any snow mixing in would not last long into Monday morning with drier air quickly ending precipitation. Afternoon highs will only reach the 40s Monday.

Northern Illinois to see near-record warmth ahead of weekend rain chances

Couple of thunderstorms are roaming through ahead of the morning commute. All non-severe, though a few have been capable of producing small-sized hail as well as a good amount of lightning. 

 

 

Thunderstorm chances will decrease once a warm front has lifted to our north which should be around the mid-morning hours. On the backside of this warm front, temperatures will quickly climb into the upper 70s, placing Rockford very close to it's record high for March 28th which is 79° from 1910. However, it won't be the most enjoyable warmup as winds significantly ramp up, gusting up to 40-45 mph at times this afternoon and evening.

Winds remain organized overnight, only allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 50s. We can expect mild temperatures to stay in place for Saturday, though it does come with less of a wind and a chance for a few showers late. Rain chances will increase into Sunday as an area of low pressure lifts into the region from the southwest. 

Severe potential drops with northern extent, though the Storm Prediction Center placed half of the region under a Level 2, Slight Risk. This includes Rochelle, DeKalb, Belvidere, Amboy, and Sterling. Stay tuned for further updates as more will come about in terms of severe potential locally. Cold air rushing in on the storm system's backside will cause any lingering rain to mix with and changeover to wet snow Monday morning. Precip won't last long on Monday, leading to a dry but cool transition into April.

Warmth and wind return Friday afternoon

 

Southwest winds will once again ramp back up Friday as temperatures warm through the mid-70s. Wind gusts nearing 40 mph can be expected through the evening.

Clouds will stick around through the rest of Thursday evening as temperatures hold steady in the 50s. A combination of cloud cover and breezy south winds will keep overnight lows in the mid and upper 40s. An isolated sprinkle or shower can't be completely ruled out through the evening, but the better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive during the overnight.

This will occur as a warm front moves in from the south, where temperatures are currently in the 70s. As the front lifts through southern and central Illinois overnight scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, lifting north into the Stateline early Friday morning. Severe weather is expected to remain low but a few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing pea to even nickel sized hail through sunrise.

Once the front lifts north into central Wisconsin late morning and early afternoon temperatures are expected to rise quickly, reaching the mid-70s by the afternoon. Southwest winds will also increase, gusting as high as 40 mph through the afternoon and evening. Winds will remain gusty Friday night which will keep temperatures in the mid and upper 50s. 

Temperatures for most will remain in the 60s Saturday afternoon but it'll come with a fair amount of cloud cover during the day. By late afternoon the front will move down Lake Michigan into northeast Illinois. This will cause temperatures to drop quite a bit east of the viewing area, but a few locations centered around I-90 could also experience a temperature drop with numbers in the 40s and 50s by evening. The front will slowly lift back north Sunday morning before a second cold front sweeps

in Sunday evening. Colder air wrapping in behind this front will cause temperatures to fall even further Sunday night, with a few snow showers possible Monday morning.    

Few storms with warm front tonight, low severe risk

In my opinion, Wednesday's weather gets a perfect 10 out of 10 on the Joey scale. Pleasant conditions stuck around, with afternoon highs peaking in the upper 50s under an abundance of sun. Better yet, Wednesday's peak wind gust was 20 mph, the lowest that Rockford has observed since March 12th.

Similar winds will be on the table today, though it does come with low chance for rain. Hit or miss showers will be possible before midday, with cloudy skies staying overhead for the afternoon. 

Some won't see rain, others will, likely only picking up a hundredth of an inch or two. Despite the cloud cover, a light southeasterly wind will bring afternoon highs back into the mid 50s.

A warm front will then lift through the Stateline Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing another chance for scattered showers and storms. Severe weather is not a concern for Rockford at this moment in time, though a few of our locales closer to the Mississippi River have been placed under a Level 1, Marginal Risk for severe weather. Heavy downpours and hail up to 1" in diameter will be the biggest concerns with the strongest storms.  

Once the warm front has lifted into Wisconsin, storm chances will significantly drop. Our focus will then turn to strong winds and the unseasonably warm air that tags along with it. We round out the work week with afternoon highs in the low 70s. In fact, Friday's forecast high of 74° falls 5° short of our daily record high of 79° from 1910. Of course, we don't get that warm this early in the year unless a strong warm wind is present. That will be the case Friday and Friday night, with peak gusts reaching 40 mph.